USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
Apr-13 06:24
- RES 4: 1.3745 High Mar 27
- RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 1.3617 High Mar 29
- RES 1: 1.3558 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3425 @ 07:23 BST Apr 13
- SUP 1: 1.3407/04 Low Apr 7 / 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
- SUP 2: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
- SUP 3: 1.3334 Low Feb 15
- SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
The outlook in USDCAD remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to have been a correction. The pair continues to trade below the 50-day EMA and sights are on the recent low of 1.3407 (Apr 4) and 1.3404, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of these two support points would expose 1.3358, the Feb 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3558, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA is required to suggest a possible reversal
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
Mar-14 06:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 14-Mar | 0700 | Jan/Feb | Labour Market Survey |
| 15-Mar | ---- | ---- | Chancellor Delivers Spring Budget, OBR Forecasts, Likely DMO Remit |
| 17-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Bank of England/TNS Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 20-Mar | ---- | ---- | DMO Quarterly Consultation with GEMMs |
| 21-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Public Sector Net Finances |
| 22-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Inflation Report |
| 22-Mar | 0930 | Jan | ONS House Price Index |
| 22-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 23-Mar | 1200 | ---- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 24-Mar | 0001 | Mar | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Retail Sales |
| 24-Mar | 0930 | Mar | S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI (Flash) |
| 24-Mar | 1630 | Q2 | BOE Announces Q2 Active Gilt Sales Schedule |
| 27-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Distributive Trends |
JGBS: Curve Flattens, Futures Finish Off Best Levels
Mar-14 06:22
JGB futures finished away from best levels of the session, after an early Tokyo rally failed to breach the overnight session high, although the contract was comfortably firmer on the day, +138 at the close.
- JGBs in the intermediate zone of the curve pulled away from best levels after 10-Year swap rates found an intraday base just above the BoJ’s YCC cap (where a low of 0.516% was registered this morning). This probably isn’t a coincidence, as 10-Year swaps are viewed as a fair value play re: JGBs given the relative lack of BoJ control over that market.
- This combination saw 10-Year JGB yields pull away from multi-month lows, after showing below the BoJ’s prior YCC cap (0.25%) for a large chunk of the session. A reduction in short positioning seems to be a clear factor in the recent round of richening in the 7- to 10-Year sector, but does leave the space susceptible to pressure if fresh BoJ YCC speculation is triggered by a hawkish repricing of the path of global central banks.
- Cash JGBs sit 1-16bp richer across the curve, with bull flattening in play after the early outperformance of 7s and 10s gave way. Swaps spreads are tighter out to 5s, but mixed beyond that.
- Local headline flow was limited.
- 5-Year JGB supply saw tepid reception, with outright richness countering relative and carry & roll appeal.
- BoJ Rinban operations headline domestically tomorrow.
CROSS ASSET: Question mark over how much of the CS story is new
Mar-14 06:20
- One thing to caution about the Credit Suisse headline is it's not clear at this point how much of this is new... According to the Dow Jones story today's annual report " confirmed previous years' financial results, after a delay amid discussions requested by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission."
- This was after the request from the SEC last week to delay.
- Either way, it's spooked the market and we are seeing big moves in Treasuries here which are leading Bunds higher, too.
Trending Top
Mar-27 20:13
