ITALY DATA: Stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP; But Q2 Prospects Bleak

• Final Spread: MS+30bps (guidance was MS+32bps area)
• Size: EUR benchmark
• Books in excess of E13.5bln (ex JLM interest)
• Maturity: 07-May-2030
• Settlement: 07-Apr-2025 (T+5)
• Coupon: Long first to 07-May-2026
• Bookrunners:    CITI/CACIB(DM/B&D)/SG
• ISIN:           EU000A2SCAT6
• Timing: Books to close at 10:30BST / 11:30CET, today’s business

Despite recent gains, a bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact, and gains this month are considered corrective. However, a key resistance at $69.17, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. The breach strengthens a bullish theme and opens $70.98, the Feb 25 high. For bears, a reversal lower would expose the bear trigger at $64.85, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $63.73, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish. Today’s strong gains highlight a bullish start to this week’s session and confirm a continuation of the primary uptrend. The rally also once again, highlights fresh all-time highs for the yellow metal. Sights are on the $3151.5, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $2992.4, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

• WTI Crude up $0.42 or +0.61% at $70.02
• Natural Gas up $0.14 or +3.35% at $4.206
• Gold spot up $37.27 or +1.21% at $3122.36
• Copper down $6.95 or -1.35% at $507.4
• Silver up $0.12 or +0.35% at $34.3284
• Platinum up $7.56 or +0.77% at $995.67

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading lower today and this has resulted in a breach of key support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. The print below this support undermines a bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the 5200 handle next, where a break would open 5079.00, the Feb 3 low. It is still possible that recent weakness is part of a broader correction. Initial resistance to watch is 5359.39, the 20-day EMA. S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday and the contract maintains a softer tone. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at, 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 1502.77 pts or -4.05% at 35617.56 and the TOPIX ended 98.52 pts lower or -3.57% at 2658.73.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 15.561 pts or -0.46% at 3335.746 and the HANG SENG ended 307.02 pts lower or -1.31% at 23119.58.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 236.57 pts or -1.05% at 22254.1, FTSE 100 lower by 79.35 pts or -0.92% at 8591.89, CAC 40 down 99.8 pts or -1.26% at 7835.3 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 61.2 pts or -1.15% at 5278.03.
• Dow Jones mini down 203 pts or -0.49% at 41702, S&P 500 mini down 44.25 pts or -0.79% at 5589.5, NASDAQ mini down 239.5 pts or -1.23% at 19262.25.