US DATA: Strong Recent Trends For Payrolls After Annual Revisions
Feb-07 13:57
- Nonfarm payrolls were softer than expected in January alone at 143k (cons 175k) but the latest two-month revision of +100k more than offset this (almost evenly split across Dec and Nov).
- As such, the 143k followed two even stronger than previously thought months with 307k in Dec and 261k in Nov.
- Impressively, that December print came despite a less favorable seasonal factor, which we’ll touch more on later.
- Looking beyond that two-month typical revision window, the new seasonally adjusted profile sees little change through Aug-Oct with weakness coming Jun and Jul.
- See charts below but note that the Jan-Mar 2024 figures will be mechanically lowered by almost 50k per month owing to the benchmark revision noted earlier.
- Latest trends: NFP 3-mth at 237k, 6-mth at 178k. Private payrolls 3-mth 209k, 6-mth 145k.
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PIPELINE: $4.25B IADB 5Y SOFR Debt Launched
Jan-08 13:56
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/08 $4.25B #IADB 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $1.5B #Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
- 01/08 $1.5B #CoE Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $500M Novelis 5NC2
- 01/08 $Benchmark AIIB 5Y +47a
- 01/08 $Benchmark NWB 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
- 01/08 $Benchmark Northwestern Mutual 5Y +70a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Deutsche Bank 4NC3 fix/SOFR
- 01/08 $Benchmark Codelco 10Y +195a, 30Y +215a
- 01/08 $Benchmark HF Sinclair 6Y +165a, 10Y +185a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Santander UK 6.25NC5.25 +150a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Indonesia 5Y 5.65%a, 10Y 5.95%a
GBP: Cable FX Exchange traded Option
Jan-08 13:45
GBPUSD (7th Mar) 124.00p, bought for 2.05, 2.06, 2.07 in ~1.22k.
- This is already ITM, the CME contract also trades close to where the spot is, now at 123.21.
US TSY FUTURES: Post-Weekly Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims React
Jan-08 13:33
- Treasury futures have tempered the post-ADP bounce off lows following softer than expected weekly jobless claims, continuing claims higher w/ prior down-revised.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades -2.5 at 108-03 after breaching round number support to 107-28.5 low earlier, 10Y yield currently at 4.7035 +.0185 after tapping 4.7280% high, 2s10s at 42.486 +3.514.
