EUROZONE DATA: Strong France IP Driven By Transport Equipment, Amid Revisions
French industrial production for September came in firmer than expected at 0.76% M/M (0.1% Bloomberg consensus) as it recovered after an weaker August than first thought with -0.9% M/M. Manufacturing output also increased 0.9% M/M (vs -1.0% August, downwardly revised from -0.7%).
- Looking at the details, transport equipment rebounded strongly (5.5% M/M vs -4.3% prior), "following the lead of the aerospace industry, which, since June, has been the sector contributing most to chances in manufacturing output", notes INSEE. "Other transport equipment" also rebounded 7.1% (vs -5.8% prior). More modest rebounds were seen in electricals, food processing and refining.
- Though M/M increases were seen across most subcomponents, mining and quarrying saw a notable -4.7% M/M fall (vs 0.6% prior). Declines were also seen in "Other industrial products" (-0.3% M/M vs -0.2% prior), a category that includes metallurgy, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
- On a Y/Y basis, industrial production rose 1.3% (0.6% Bloomberg consensus) after a downwardly revised 0.1% (from 0.4% prior) and manufacturing output grew 1.5% (0.2% prior, revised down from 0.5%).
- Revisions to the data, as usual, are attributed to the inclusion of late responses from some companies.
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OAT: Above average Volumes are going through
The French OAT (OATZ5) is seeing some of its best traded Volumes given the uncertainty in France.
The contract is already nearly trading Friday's total volume, the latest flow has seen more Block trades, but this time to the sell side:
- OATZ5 2.3k went through at 121.09.
- OATZ5 620 at 120.90.
The Next noted support of 120.63 has held earlier, printed a 120.61 low on PM Lecornu's resignation announcement.
MNI: EUROZONE AUG RETAIL SALES +0.1% M/M, +1.0% Y/Y (VS -0.4% M/M, +2.1% Y/Y JUL)
- MNI: EUROZONE AUG RETAIL SALES +0.1% M/M, +1.0% Y/Y (VS -0.4% M/M, +2.1% Y/Y JUL)
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Remain in a Bear-Mode Condition
WTI futures remain in a bear-mode condition. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and today’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that corrections, when they do occur, are shallow. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3987.33 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $3715.0, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $0.97 or +1.59% at $61.85
- Natural Gas up $0.15 or +4.45% at $3.475
- Gold spot up $57.43 or +1.48% at $3944.61
- Copper down $5.05 or -0.99% at $505.95
- Silver up $0.7 or +1.45% at $48.6983
- Platinum up $11.84 or +0.74% at $1616.6
