STIR: Mix Of Positioning Swings During Tuesday's SOFR Twist Steepening
Mix of positioning swings seen during yesterday’s twist steepening of the SOFR futures strip, dominant themes outlined below:
- Whites: Short cover
- Reds: Long setting
- Greens & Blues: Short setting
- Drivers of yesterday’s move and latest Fed pricing run to come in subsequent bullet.
| 03-Dec-24 | 02-Dec-24 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU4 | 1,262,763 | 1,264,034 | -1,271 | Whites | -13,733 |
SFRZ4 | 1,302,038 | 1,321,825 | -19,787 | Reds | +12,415 |
SFRH5 | 1,074,042 | 1,064,488 | +9,554 | Greens | +32,098 |
SFRM5 | 980,656 | 982,885 | -2,229 | Blues | +19,014 |
SFRU5 | 814,721 | 801,344 | +13,377 |
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SFRZ5 | 946,786 | 949,779 | -2,993 |
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SFRH6 | 567,627 | 578,060 | -10,433 |
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SFRM6 | 596,804 | 584,340 | +12,464 |
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SFRU6 | 634,048 | 631,241 | +2,807 |
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SFRZ6 | 690,296 | 677,720 | +12,576 |
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SFRH7 | 422,735 | 410,553 | +12,182 |
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SFRM7 | 353,026 | 348,493 | +4,533 |
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SFRU7 | 286,420 | 272,577 | +13,843 |
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SFRZ7 | 291,791 | 288,950 | +2,841 |
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SFRH8 | 205,417 | 205,285 | +132 |
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SFRM8 | 155,339 | 153,141 | +2,198 |
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STIR: SOFR FIX - 04/11/24
| SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME | ||
| 1M | 4.64045 | -0.01155 |
| 3M | 4.53164 | -0.02265 |
| 6M | 4.38167 | -0.03031 |
| 12M | 4.14268 | -0.04836 |
GERMANY: Gov't Spox-'Expect Coalition To Work Until End Of Its Term'
Reuters reporting comments from a spox for the German gov't claiming that "I expect the coalition to work until the end of its regular term". The comments come amid a flurry of headlines suggesting that the tripartite 'traffic light coalition' is on the brink of collapse and that a federal election could come sooner than the one scheduled in September 2025.
- High-profile meetings involving Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Social Democrats, SPD), Finance Minister Christian Lindner (Free Democrats, FDP) and Economy Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) have been called in an effort to resolve internal divisions and see if there is a path towards keeping the gov't together.
- Lindner's publishing of a budget document outlining tax and spending reductions and looser business regulation on 1 Nov has been seen as a shot across the bows, given that it counters the details of a massive investment programme put out by Habeck a week earlier.
- The FDP is seen as the most likely to leave gov't. The FDP currently sits below the 5% threshold required to win representation in the Bundestag. Leaving an unpopular gov't on a point of principle could win back enough FDP voters to keep the party in parliament.
- A minority SPD-Green gov't could limp on until spring 2025, with the prospect of an early election on 9 March mooted by some observers. The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is seen as favourite to win a plurality in the next election, with a CDU-SPD 'grand coalition' looking the most likely outcome at present.
US TSY FUTURES: CFTC: Asset Managers Build On Longs, Levered Funds Add Shorts
The latest CFTC COT report pointed to relatively familiar themes when it came to positioning movements, as asset managers built on their broader net longs (only WN futures saw a cut in net length from that cohort), while levered funds added to overall net shorts (albeit while cutting net shorts in US & WN futures).
- Non-commercial net shorts swelled in TU through UXY futures, while overall net short non-commercial positioning was trimmed in US & WN futures.
- A reminder that the survey covers the period through October 29, so doesn’t capture reaction to the NFP release.
- The presence of basis trades will skew positioning provided within the CFTC CoT.
Source: MNI - Market NEws/CFTC/Bloomberg
