STIR: Euribor Futures Off Overnight Lows Alongside Bunds
Nov-14 08:14
Euribor futures are off overnight lows alongside Bunds, currently +1.0 to -2.0 ticks through the blues. ECB-dated OIS continue to price 31bps of cuts through December, with 138bps of easing priced through September 2025.
- The preliminary (second) reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP is due at 1000GMT/1100CET. Sequential quarterly GDP growth is expected to be unchanged from the advance reading of 0.4% Q/Q (which was above the ECB’s 0.2% projection from September). As such, more interest will lie in the employment growth and real productivity metrics.
- The accounts of the ECB's October monetary policy meeting (1230GMT) are unlikely to provide many fresh signals for markets. The ECB's "data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting" approach is well defined and almost all policymakers have provided their views since the October gathering. See our latest ECB-speak wrap for a summary of recent commentary.
- September industrial production is also due today, with Executive Board members’ de Guindos (0830GMT) and Schnabel (1830GMT) scheduled to speak.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Dec-24 | 2.856 | -30.8 |
| Jan-25 | 2.521 | -64.4 |
| Mar-25 | 2.229 | -93.6 |
| Apr-25 | 2.035 | -112.9 |
| Jun-25 | 1.894 | -127.0 |
| Jul-25 | 1.827 | -133.7 |
| Sep-25 | 1.781 | -138.3 |
| Oct-25 | 1.766 | -139.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
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ECB: Q3 BLS: Unchanged Firm Lending Standards, But Loan Demand Picks Up
Oct-15 08:07
- The ECB's Q3 Bank Lending Survey saw unchanged lending standards for firms in Q3, although demand for loans picked up modestly despite remaining "weak overall".
- While credit standards remained unchanged in net terms, risk perceptions were again "reported as having a small tightening impact," according to the survey. A small net easing was reported in Germany.
- Banks also reported a further net easing of credit standards for loans to households for house purchase, of -3%, whereas a further 6% net tightening was reported for consumer credit.
- Overall, the survey offers few new catalysts for the ECB, which is set to cut rates by 25bps at Thursday's meeting.
- MNI's preview is here.
FOREX: JPY Recovering Well as Asia-Pac Stocks Soften into the Local Close
Oct-15 08:05
- JPY strength gathered pace overnight on the mixed performance for Asia-Pac equities, as Hong Kong names are headed for a particularly weak close. Hang Seng is lower by over 4% just ahead of the local close, and a close at current or lower levels would reverse the rally posted since end-September, with concerns over the potential minimal impacts of stimulus, geopolitical risk and soft China data out yesterday and over the weekend continuing to weigh on sentiment.
- USD/JPY now targets the week's low at 148.98 initially, but support is seen stronger into 147.53, the 23.6% retracement for the recovery off the mid-September low.
- Oil-tied FX is suffering from the broad pullback in crude oil prices, keeping NOK and CAD offered. Source reports this morning suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure but would focus on military sites in any future strikes.
- US yields have edged lower off the overnight highs, helping the greenback ease off the recent spell of strength - USD Index has failed to top yesterday's highs at 103.358, which remains the first upside level of note.
Oct-15 08:00
- MNI: ECB Q3 ENTERPRISE CREDIT STANDARD +0
- MNI: ECB Q3 ENTERPRISE DEMAND +4
- MNI: ECB Q3 HOUSE PURCHASE STANDARDS -3
- MNI: ECB Q3 HOUSE PURCHASE DEMAND +39
- MNI: ECB Q3 CONSUMER CREDIT STANDARDS +6
- MNI: ECB Q3 CONSUMER CREDIT DEMAND +8
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