USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.3929 High Jan 16 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 1.3879 High Jan 20
- RES 2: 1.3807 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3643/1.3739 Low Dec 26 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3509 @ 08:06 GMT Jan 30
- SUP 1: 1.3482 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3400 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 uptrend
- SUP 4: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 2024
A bearish theme in USDCAD remains intact following a sharp sell-off this week. The move down also highlights an acceleration of the downleg. The pair has breached 1.3643, the Dec 26 low and sights are on 1.3473 next, the Oct 2 ‘24 low. Note that 1.3540, the Jun 16 ‘25 low, has also been breached, strengthening the bear cycle. The trend is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Resistance is at 1.3739, the 20-day EMA.
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US-CHINA: NVIDIA Scrambling To Meet H200 Demand From China: RTRS Sources
Latest from Reuters sources on NVIDIA chip demand from China:
- "Nvidia NVDA.O is scrambling to meet strong demand for its H200 artificial intelligence chips from Chinese technology companies and has approached contract manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co 2330.TW to ramp up production, sources said."
- "Chinese technology companies have placed orders for more than 2 million H200 chips for 2026, while Nvidia currently holds just 700,000 units in stock, two of the people said."
- "The exact additional volume Nvidia intends to order from TSMC remains unclear, they said. A third source said Nvidia has asked TSMC to begin production of the additional chips, and work is expected to start in the second quarter of 2026."
US TSYS: Yields Fall 1bp Across Curve On China Beef Tariff Announcement
US Treasury yields have pulled back around 1bp across the curve as details of China’s additional beef tariffs filtered through. The US will have to pay 55% additional tariffs on beef exports to China, above its specified quota (164k tons a year in 2026).
- 2- and 10-year yields are now -0.8bps versus yesterday’s close. 10-year yields have traded in a contained 4.10%-4.20% range through most of December, currently at 4.114%. 30-year yields are little changed at 4.806%.
- A reminder that Treasuries were closed overnight owing to the Japanese market holiday.
- Today’s calendar is headlined by weekly jobless claims data at 0830ET/1330GMT.
- Note that markets will close early (1300ET; 1600ET Globex) for New Years eve, re-open/electronic trade Thursday evening for Friday's order of business.
- Yesterday’s FOMC minutes did not generate any major market moves. The key paragraph indicated (as did the meeting Dot Plot) a sizeable minority of members seeing no further easing through end-2026, but a base case among a solid if narrow majority that further limited cuts would ensue if the data cooperate.
GILT TECHS: (H6) Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 92.31 High Nov 12
- RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 91.93 High Nov 27
- RES 1: 91.78 High Dec 17
- PRICE: 91.21 @ Close Dec 30
- SUP 1: 90.50 Low Dec 16
- SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21
- SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger
Recent price action in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.
