UK DATA: Something for everyone in flash UK PMI data
Jan-24 09:38
- Upside surprise for manufacturing of 1.2 points vs consensus, 0.4 points for services and 0.8 points for composite. However, the details look to give something for both the hawks and doves here:
- On the cost / inflation side, there were some concerning aspects which will be noted by Mann (and potentially some of the other centrists on the MPC), with costs increasing leading to both the highest level of input price inflation since May 2023 and the highest increase in prices charged for 18 months. And perhaps even more worryingly it is noted that there are "efforts" to pass on these costs - which is why the output prices are increasing. Earlier in 2024 it was noted that firms were trying to absorb costs when they could.
- However new work and employment is being impacted with the Budget being cited as impacting both recruitment plans and confidence. This is likely to increase the confidence of the doves.
- "Total new work fell at the fastest pace since October 2023. Survey respondents cited subdued underlying demand conditions and cutbacks to non-essential spending."
- "Many firms suggested that the forthcoming hike in employers' National Insurance had resulted in cutbacks to recruitment plans, while others cited the impact of a post-Budget slump in business confidence."
- (Quotes from press release).
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