USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
- RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 1.3729/74 50-day EMA / High Jul 17
- PRICE: 1.3660 @ 08:04 BST Jul 25
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
Despite a recovery from this week’s lows, the trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and short-term gains are considered corrective. Resistance at 1.3729, the 50-day EMA, remains intact for now. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible stronger short-term reversal. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6552 High June 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6493 @ 08:03 BST Jun 25
- SUP 1: 0.6454/6373 Low Jun 24 / 23
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6309 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jun 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. The sharp reversal higher from Monday’s low reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the latest corrective pullback. The climb Monday also highlights a bullish price pattern - a hammer candle formation. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6552, the Jun 16 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.
STIR: Yesterday's Highs Contain Upside In Euribor Futures For Now
Euribor futures have extended higher alongside Bunds since the European open, but yesterday’s highs remain intact for now. The whites/reds are +1.0 to +2.0 ticks versus yesterday’s settlement at typing, with greens/blues little changed.
- While yesterday’s German budget/issuance announcement prompted a renewed steepening in the German curve, the spillover into Euribor implied rates was fairly contained.
- The risk of gradual hikes is already embedded into the curve from H2 2026 onwards, with markets needing to observe the actual economic impact of higher spending before contemplating a more aggressive monetary policy response.
- ECB-dated OIS are up to 1.5bps more dovish through the next 12-months, still consistent with one more 25bp cut this cycle.
- Today’s regional calendar is light, with focus turning to the Spanish and French flash June inflation prints on Friday.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-25 | 1.901 | -2.5 |
| Sep-25 | 1.781 | -14.5 |
| Oct-25 | 1.745 | -18.1 |
| Dec-25 | 1.678 | -24.8 |
| Feb-26 | 1.667 | -26.0 |
| Mar-26 | 1.644 | -28.3 |
| Apr-26 | 1.645 | -28.1 |
| Jun-26 | 1.649 | -27.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
MNI: SPAIN Q1 FINAL GDP +0.6% Q/Q
- MNI: SPAIN Q1 FINAL GDP +0.6% Q/Q
- MNI: SPAIN Q1 FINAL GDP +2.8% Y/Y
