USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6552 High June 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6493 @ 08:03 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 0.6454/6373 Low Jun 24 / 23
• SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12    
• SUP 3: 0.6309 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jun 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. The sharp reversal higher from Monday’s low reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the latest corrective pullback. The climb Monday also highlights a bullish price pattern - a hammer candle formation. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6552, the Jun 16 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.

Euribor futures have extended higher alongside Bunds since the European open, but yesterday’s highs remain intact for now. The whites/reds are +1.0 to +2.0 ticks versus yesterday’s settlement at typing, with greens/blues little changed.

• While yesterday’s German budget/issuance announcement prompted a renewed steepening in the German curve, the spillover into Euribor implied rates was fairly contained.
• The risk of gradual hikes is already embedded into the curve from H2 2026 onwards, with markets needing to observe the actual economic impact of higher spending before contemplating a more aggressive monetary policy response.
• ECB-dated OIS are up to 1.5bps more dovish through the next 12-months, still consistent with one more 25bp cut this cycle.
• Today’s regional calendar is light, with focus turning to the Spanish and French flash June inflation prints on Friday.

• MNI: SPAIN Q1 FINAL GDP +0.6% Q/Q
• MNI: SPAIN Q1 FINAL GDP +2.8% Y/Y