SOFR: Short Setting In Very Front End Of Futures Dominates On Wednesday
OI data suggests that short setting across the white pack provided the most meaningful net positioning swing as most SOFR futures settled lower on Wednesday.
- A mix of net short setting and long cover was then seen further out the curve.
- Hawkish leaning Fed meeting minutes and the BLS noting that it will not release the October NFP release in isolation triggered much of the modest hawkish adjustment.
| 19-Nov-25 | 18-Nov-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,390,620 | 1,381,015 | +9,605 | Whites | +125,143 |
SFRZ5 | 1,448,461 | 1,423,560 | +24,901 | Reds | -2,855 |
SFRH6 | 1,351,230 | 1,292,399 | +58,831 | Greens | +9,426 |
SFRM6 | 1,125,797 | 1,093,991 | +31,806 | Blues | +6,745 |
SFRU6 | 1,139,666 | 1,147,255 | -7,589 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,169,701 | 1,175,116 | -5,415 |
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SFRH7 | 879,030 | 862,525 | +16,505 |
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SFRM7 | 800,663 | 807,019 | -6,356 |
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SFRU7 | 821,164 | 815,101 | +6,063 |
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SFRZ7 | 827,737 | 811,260 | +16,477 |
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SFRH8 | 452,590 | 456,118 | -3,528 |
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SFRM8 | 401,127 | 410,713 | -9,586 |
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SFRU8 | 349,905 | 348,395 | +1,510 |
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SFRZ8 | 324,355 | 318,169 | +6,186 |
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SFRH9 | 195,637 | 197,239 | -1,602 |
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SFRM9 | 187,844 | 187,193 | +651 |
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MNI EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Former BOE policymaker Andrew Sentance
- Former BOE policymaker Andrew Sentance looks at interest rates and inflation -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
JAPAN: USDJPY Briefly Rises Above 152.00 amid Takaichi Headlines
- "JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER TAKAICHI TO INSTRUCT COMPILING STIMULUS PACKAGE AT FIRST CABINET MEETING, KYODO SAYS" (Reuters)
- Not entirely sure if linked to the above Reuters headline, but this was out a little while ago from Kyodo:
- Takaichi “will instruct the preparation of a supplementary budget for fiscal 2025 that includes measures to combat rising prices. She will position its passage in the extraordinary Diet session as her top priority. Takaichi will hold a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on the evening of the 21st.”
- It is worth noting that although the coalition framework has changed, the party remains a minority government, and therefore negotiations with the opposition parties are essential to realising policies.
- USDJPY briefly climbs above the 152 handle, reaching a session high of 152.05, a solid 1.05% above session lows. As a reminder, the technical bull trigger remains further out at 153.27, the Oct 10 high.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Remains Present
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and price is holding on to its recent gains. The latest climb maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4400.00 handle next, and $4404.9, a 3.500 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down - a correction - would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support to watch lies at $4021.6, the 20-day EMA.
- A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on $54.89 next, the May 5 low, where a break would open $54.10, the Apr 9 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $61.76, the 50-day EMA.
