STIR: Short Setting & Long Cover Dominated On SOFR Strip On Wednesday
May-22 10:36
OI data points to a mix of net long and short setting, along with long cover, in the SOFR whites on Wednesday.
- A mix of net short setting and long cover was then seen further out the strip, driving twist steepening.
| 21-May-25 | 20-May-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,050,602 | 1,037,109 | +13,493 | Whites | -5,101 |
SFRM5 | 1,220,901 | 1,219,874 | +1,027 | Reds | -3,249 |
SFRU5 | 1,085,535 | 1,084,216 | +1,319 | Greens | +17,702 |
SFRZ5 | 1,078,861 | 1,099,801 | -20,940 | Blues | +5,911 |
SFRH6 | 762,008 | 769,832 | -7,824 |
|
|
SFRM6 | 734,810 | 724,987 | +9,823 |
|
|
SFRU6 | 742,579 | 746,434 | -3,855 |
|
|
SFRZ6 | 885,850 | 887,243 | -1,393 |
|
|
SFRH7 | 726,310 | 720,423 | +5,887 |
|
|
SFRM7 | 596,466 | 597,455 | -989 |
|
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SFRU7 | 392,347 | 382,175 | +10,172 |
|
|
SFRZ7 | 409,439 | 406,807 | +2,632 |
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SFRH8 | 267,599 | 268,937 | -1,338 |
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SFRM8 | 197,420 | 193,588 | +3,832 |
|
|
SFRU8 | 152,517 | 153,614 | -1,097 |
|
|
SFRZ8 | 170,270 | 165,756 | +4,514 |
|
|
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gold Remains In Play
Apr-22 10:36
- On the commodity front, the trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, the 1.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing. Initial firm support lies at 3163.5, the 20-day EMA. First support is $3331.5, the Apr 21 low.
- In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level. The 50-day EMA is at $66.22.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $5B Amex 4Pt Led Monday Supply
Apr-22 10:34
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/22 $Benchmark OCP 5Y, +10Y investor calls
- $5B Priced Monday
- 04/21 $5B *American Express $1.6B 4NC3 +98, $400M 4NC3 SOFR+126, $1.5B 6NC5 +108, $1.5B 11NC10 +128
- 04/21 $700M Excelerate Energy 5NC2 investor calls
- 04/21 $2B QXO Inc. 7NC3 investor calls
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speakers, Richmond Fed Data, 2Y Note Sale
Apr-22 10:25
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 22-Apr 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-32.5, --)
- 22-Apr 0900 Fed Gov Jefferson, Economic Mobility Summit
- 22-Apr 0930 Philly Fed Harker, Economic Mobility Summit
- 22-Apr 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-4, -7)
- 22-Apr 1000 Richmond Fed Business Conditions (-14, --)
- 22-Apr 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
- 22-Apr 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CMY4)
- 22-Apr 1340 MN Fed Kashkari Speaks moderated discussion
- 22-Apr 1430 Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat (no text, Q&A)
- 22-Apr 1800 Fed Gov Kugler on Mon/Pol Transmission (text, Q&A)
