MNI NBP Preview - Feb 2026: Muddy Waters

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Executive Summary:

• Consensus is split between a hold and a 25bp cut amid new-year uncertainty.
• Recent data surprised to the upside; wage growth quickened in December.
• However, inflation is expected to fall in Jan and stay contained over the medium-term.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) faces a binary decision between a hold and a standard 25bp cut after taking a breather in January. Signals since then have been mixed. High-frequency labour market and economic activity data surprised to the upside, and the structure of the above-consensus 2025 GDP print reflected a greater reliance on domestic consumption. On the other hand, the big picture remains benign, Governor Adam Glapiński explicitly ruled a February cut in, while the NBP’s internal analyses may indicate a significant drop in headline inflation at the beginning of the year. This ambiguous backdrop leaves the outcome of the upcoming Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meeting finely balanced.