US: Share Of Consumers Who Expect Unemployment To Rise Surges - Axios
Mar-21 17:43
Axios reports, from University of Michigan data analyzed by Bank of America: “The share of consumers who say they expect unemployment to rise over the next year surged to 66% in March — by far the highest level going back a decade.”
- Axios added: “The unemployment rate is pretty low at the moment. But under the hood, Americans sure are nervous about the job market. Add rising job anxiety to the growing list of soft indicators that may be signaling trouble ahead.”
- Bank of America notes: "...in our view, while the labor market remains solid, it’s possible that consumers’ negative expectations may weigh on their spending decisions, especially when it comes to lower-income households and their more discretionary choices."
- The report is another potential warning sign for the Trump administration, which has seen a series of surveys showing that voters are unconvinced by Trump's handling of the economy.
- A new poll from NBC News this week shows, "54% of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. Numbers like this will likely get to Trump. It’s not his brand to be perceived as weak."
Figure 1: Share of Consumers who say they Expect more Unemployment in the Next 12 Months, April 2014 – March 2025
Source: Axios, University of Michigan
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FOREX: EURJPY Pulling Lower, Technical Resistance Remains Intact
Feb-19 17:20
- Single currency weakness continues to be evident following Trump's post on Zelensky, reflective of the souring sentiment towards how the potential Russia/Ukraine ‘negotiations might progress. EURUSD continues to press towards 1.0400, placing weight on EURJPY (0.65%), which continues to hover near session lows as we approach the European close.
- Overall, EURJPY has pulled back from its recent high, and resistance at 160.68, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A stronger reversal south would refocus the attention on 155.61, the Feb 10 low and a bear trigger. Furthermore, a trendline drawn from the August 2022 lows currently intersects just above this level, bolstering the significance of this area of support.
- Clearance would resume the downtrend, and signal scope for a deeper selloff towards 154.42-1.5323.
- Recall that TD Securities have recommended a short at 160.00, targeting a move to 152.95. Their short-term valuations suggest EUR/JPY trades rich, their models indicate positioning is clean and TD see BoJ and ECB outlooks as favouring the JPY, with March and May BoJ meetings being live.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview: $16B 20Y Bond Auction
Feb-19 17:09
Treasury auctions $16B in new issue 20Y Bond (CUSIP: 912810UJ5) at 1300ET Wednesday, in the week's only nominal coupon supply ($9B 30Y TIPS sells Thursday). It will test market appetite for duration following last week's modest tails at long-end auctions, for the 10Y and 30Y refundings.
- Last week's tails actually may bode well for the 20Y, which posted a small stop-through the last time the 10Y and 30Y both tailed (July 2024). And January saw a strong 20Y auction (1.0bp trade-through on 4.900% high yield, 2.75x bid-cover, 10.4% primary dealer takeup), which had the best statistics since June 2024.
- In spite of that, the 5-auction average for the 20Y sees a 1.5bp tail (4 consecutive auctions had tailed prior to January), with an average bid-cover of 2.54x and primary dealers taking 16.8% on average.
- The current when-issued yield of 4.81% would be the 3rd highest since the re-introduction of the 20Y in 2020 after a 34 year hiatus (January's 4.90% and Oct 2023's 5.245% being the two higher).
- From a valuation perspective, 20s are trading near the richest levels since June 2024 on the 10s-20s-30s fly (33bp), compared with 36bp at the time of last month's auction. The 2s20s / 5s20s spreads have each flattened 6-7bp since then (to 53bp and 44bp respectively), with the 10s20s spread steady (28bp, between the 4-month range of 25-30bp).
| High yield | When-issued yield | Trade through (tail) | High - Median Spread | Bid-to-cover | Primary Dealer Percent | Indirect Percent | Direct Percent | Offering Amount | |
| 5 auction avg | 4.579% | 4.564% | -1.5 | 6.3 | 2.54 | 16.80% | 66.78% | 16.41% | 13.6 |
| 22-Jan-25 | 4.900% | 4.910% | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.75 | 10.40% | 69.52% | 20.08% | 13 |
| 17-Dec-24 | 4.686% | 4.671% | -1.5 | 6.4 | 2.50 | 17.90% | 61.96% | 20.14% | 13 |
| 20-Nov-24 | 4.680% | 4.649% | -3.1 | 8.0 | 2.34 | 22.61% | 69.47% | 7.92% | 16 |
| 23-Oct-24 | 4.590% | 4.574% | -1.6 | 6.0 | 2.59 | 14.48% | 67.87% | 17.64% | 13 |
| 17-Sep-24 | 4.039% | 4.018% | -2.1 | 6.9 | 2.51 | 18.62% | 65.09% | 16.28% | 13 |
US: Treasury Sec Bessent To Skip G20 Summit In South Africa - NYT
Feb-19 17:06
The New York Times reports that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to skip a G20 summit of finance ministers and central bankers in South Africa, next week. Should Bessent decline to attend the conference, it would forgo a key opportunity for Trump's Treasury team to meet with counterparts from China, Russia, India, and Brazil. Skipping the meeting appears to signal that the Trump administration sees little value in the kind of multilateralism championed by the G20.
- The Times notes that skipping, "such a major economic gathering is highly unusual for a Treasury secretary, particularly one who was just confirmed to his post three weeks ago... It follows a boycott of a similar meeting of foreign ministers this week in Johannesburg by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Mr. Rubio said he was skipping the meetings because he had no interest in wasting taxpayer money an “coddling” anti-Americanism."
- The report comes amid a major diplomatic rupture between Washington and Pretoria over a new land expropriation law and legal actions related to the war in Gaza, culminating in a threat to suspend South Africa's participation in the African Growth and Opportunity Act.
- Semafor reported yesterday: "South Africa is preparing to dispatch a delegation of government and business leaders to Washington in an attempt to retain the country’s preferential access to the world’s largest economy — but only after similar trips to China and Europe."
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