SOFR: SFRM6 Lifted
Jun-10 10:01
SFRM6 paper paid 96.335 on 15 ahead of the fix....
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EGB SYNDICATION: Belgium 5-year Aug-31 OLO mandate
May-11 09:55
- "The Kingdom of Belgium (rated A1/AA-/A+; outlook all stable) intends to issue a new EURO syndicated benchmark bond maturing 22 August 2031 (OLO 108) in the near future, subject to market conditions. The Kingdom has mandated BNP Paribas Fortis, Citi, NatWest, Nomura and Société Générale as joint bookrunners."
- A 5-year OLO syndication in May is in line with our expectations. We had looked for a March rather than an August maturity.
- "The OLO auction on 25/05/2026 will be maintained, but will be limited in size." This is in line with the most recent Belgium syndication - in prior years the auction in the month was cancelled.
- In terms of transaction size we look for E7-9bln
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Remains Intact
May-11 09:53
- In the equity space, the primary long-term uptrend in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. Sights are on the 7453.12 next, a 2.236 projection of the Apr 23 - 28 - 29 price swing. Initial key support lies at 7174.36, the 20-day EMA.
- A strong rally in EUROSTOXX 50 futures last week reinforces bullish conditions. The contract pierced resistance at 6022.00, the Apr 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 23. A resumption of gains would open 6143.00, the Feb 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 5684.00, the May 4 low. A break of this level is required to highlight a bearish threat.
CHINA: April Inflation Data Point to Reflation Shift
May-11 09:43
- As noted earlier, April CPI and PPI data suggest that China's exit from factory-gate deflation is looking like a structural shift toward reflation. They are consistent with the PBoC's current liquidity approach, which suggests limited need for significant liquidity injections and fading hopes for rate cuts.
- Indeed, ING says that recent data will likely keep the PBoC on pause for now. Unlike many central banks globally, China's next move remains more likely to be a cut than a hike, in their view. It looks increasingly likely that such a move won't happen until at least the second half of the year, barring a significantly sharper-than-expected deterioration in activity data ahead.
- Goldman Sachs also believes that April inflation data point to continued oil-driven reflation in China. They note that overall, upstream sectors contributed around 81% of the rebound in y/y headline PPI inflation. Incorporating the stronger-than-expected April PPI print (+2.8% y/y), they revise up their 2026 full-year headline PPI inflation forecast to 2.0% y/y.
- Meanwhile, JP Morgan have also revised their full-year PPI and CPI inflation forecasts up to 2.5%y/y (from 1.3%) and 1.1%y/y (from 1.0%), respectively. However, given still weak domestic demand, possible downside risks to exports, and existing oversupply in some sectors, they believe that China’s PPI deflation pressure may persist and PPI deflation could re-emerge. Besides higher energy costs, pass-through to CPI remains limited with a time lag, so it may still take time for it to edge up closer to the NPC target of around 2%.
