GLOBAL: Several Market Closures For Labor Day

• RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 3: 1.4015 High Dec 2 ‘25
• RES 2: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3967 High Mar 31
• PRICE: 1.3901 @ 08:09 BST Apr 1
• SUP 1: 1.3845 Low Mar 27 
• SUP 2: 1.3753 High Mar 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: 1.3670 Low Mar 23 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3526 Low Mar 09

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces current trend conditions. Recent gains have resulted in a break of key resistance at 1.3753, the Mar 3 high, highlighting a short-term reversal. An important resistance at 1.3929, the Jan 16 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would open 1.3985, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3670, the Mar 23 low.

• RES 4: 0.7123 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 0.7062 High Mar 23    
• RES 2: 0.6986 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6966 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6937 @ 08:04 BST Apr 1
• SUP 1: 0.6833 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 0.6767 High Jan 7
• SUP 3: 0.6711 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low
• SUP 4: 0.6701 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - Mar 11 bull leg  

A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact for now, following the pullback that started Mar 11. The pair has recently traded through the 50-day EMA and this undermines a bull theme plus signals scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the 0.6800 handle ahead of an important trendline support at 0.6711 The trendline is drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6986, the 20-day EMA.

EUR STIRs see a dovish move as the market looks to the potential for a multi-week resolution to the Iran conflict. TTF futures have sold off, promoting a bid in both equities and core global FI markets.

• Headline risk remains evident, with the risk of short-term Middle Eastern escalation noted. A reminder that President Trump is set to make an address re: the situation in Iran later today (21:00 NY/02:00 London).
• ECB-dated OIS 3-13bp less hawkish across ’26 meetings, showing 60bp of hikes through year-end (12bp through April & 30bp of hikes priced through June).
• Euribor futures 4.0-15.0 firmer. ERZ6 a little under 40bp off cycle lows.
• Manufacturing PMI data is due today, although it will be the final readings across the Eurozone-wide and larger economies.
• ECB’s Cipollone will speak later this morning, although the topic of the digital euro seemingly limits scope for meaningful rhetoric surrounding traditional monetary policy.
• Governing Council member Rehn reiterated his view yesterday, noting that the Bank has not pre-committed to any rate path, meaning that a rate hike is not guaranteed. He went on to underscore the meeting-by-meeting nature of monetary policy, with a focus on the medium-term outlook and a need to react to any second-round inflationary effects if they become evident.