EQUITIES: Scope Seen for an Extension of the Current E-Mini S&P Corrective Cycle
Nov-19 10:05
A M/T bull trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, however, the latest sell-off highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The move down this week has resulted in the breach of two key support points; 5603.68, the 50-day EMA, and 5610.00, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5503.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5662.67, the 20-day EMA. S&P E-Minis maintain a softer short-term tone. The breach of support at 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. Note that price has also breached support at the 50-day EMA. An extension would open 6540.25, the Oct 10 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6779.00, the 20-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 165.28 pts or -0.34% at 48537.7 and the TOPIX ended 5.52 pts lower or -0.17% at 3245.58.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 6.929 pts or +0.18% at 3946.742 and the HANG SENG ended 99.38 pts lower or -0.38% at 25830.65.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 7.33 pts or -0.03% at 23172.48, FTSE 100 higher by 7.35 pts or +0.08% at 9559.97, CAC 40 down 23.76 pts or -0.3% at 7944.17 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 10.65 pts or -0.19% at 5524.06.
- Dow Jones mini up 53 pts or +0.11% at 46237, S&P 500 mini up 17.5 pts or +0.26% at 6657, NASDAQ mini up 75.5 pts or +0.31% at 24669.5.
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EUROZONE DATA: Foreign Appetite For EZ Debt Dwindled In August [2/2]
Oct-20 09:57
- On the financial account side, there were some large swings in portfolio net flows in August, including for equity flows after three mild months. The following figures are all on a non-seasonally adjusted basis:
- Debt net outflows jumped to E55bn in August - the largest since Dec 2022 – to reverse three months of inflows summing to E52bn. (Note that we write from a currency perspective as opposed to the charts below which stick to the BPM6 basis)
- This switch to debt outflows came as net acquisition of assets bounced back to E58bn whilst the net incurrence of liabilities narrowed to a small E3.5bn.
- On the latter, prior months had seen far larger foreign appetite for Eurozone liabilities, including E75bn in May and E82bn in June. August can be a small month for foreign net flows into Eurozone debt liabilities but the E3.5bn still compares with E13bn in Aug 2024, E14bn in Aug 2023 and E25bn in Aug 2022.
- Equity saw large inflows meanwhile, with E55bn in Aug the largest since E75bn in Feb and before that Dec 2023. Domestic investors shied away from overseas investments (a net pullback of E2.5bn in further backtracking from a E53.5bn net investment in June) whilst foreign investors saw increases appetite for Eurozone equity with the E52bn the highest since Feb.
EUROZONE DATA: Smallest Current Account Surplus Since Apr 2023 [1/2]
Oct-20 09:56
- The current account surplus fell to E11.9bn (swda) in August for its smallest since Apr 2023, down from E29.8bn in July.
- The merchandise trade data had pointed to a narrowing, and indeed the goods surplus shifted from E24.6bn to E15.0bn (also smallest since Apr 2023), but the narrowing was further boosted by the primary income balance shifting from a surplus of E8.3bn to a deficit of E1.2bn.
- Primary income had masked a smaller goods surplus earlier in the summer, with a surplus worth E13.2bn in June (highest since Jun 2024 and before that mid-2022) and E8.3bn in July after large deficits in Jan and Feb.
- The non-seasonally adjusted details show that those large primary income deficits earlier in the year came on greater direct investment outflows (potentially ahead of US tariff policies) before the June/July surpluses were boosted by larger portfolio investment income credits.
- More broadly, the current account surplus narrowed to 2.0% GDP on a three-month rolling basis in August from 2.5% GDP in July, at what had been its highest since Aug 2024.
- The goods surplus stood at 1.6% GDP (smallest since mid-2023), the services surplus was unchanged at 1.1% GDP, the primary income surplus was unchanged at 0.5% GDP (largest since Aug 2024 but seemingly likely to shrink ahead) and the secondary income deficit was unchanged at 1.2% GDP.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Trend Signals Remain Bullish
Oct-20 09:54
- In the equity space, recent weakness in S&P E-Minis appears corrective - for now. Price has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 6615.80, but this support area remains intact. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. Clearance of this level would undermine a bull theme. Moving average studies continue to remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high.
- The trend direction in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains up and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract is trading above key support at 5498.73, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, the bull trigger is unchanged at 5689.00, the Oct 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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