EM CEEMEA CREDIT: S&P Stable Outlook for Israel
"*ISRAEL OUTLOOK REVISED TO STABLE FROM NEGATIVE BY S&P" - Bbg
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Thursday
| 2245BST | 0545HKT | 0845AEDT | Fed's Barr Speaks On Community Development |
| 0001BST | 0701HKT | 1001AEDT | UK Sep RICS House Price Balance |
| 0015BST | 0715HKT | 1015AEDT | Fed's Goolsbee Speaks At Payments Conference |
| 0030BST | 0730HKT | 1030AEDT | Fed's Goolsbee on Fox 32 Chicago |
| 0050BST | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Weekly Offshore Investment Flows |
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia Oct Inflation Expectations |
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia 2030, 2040 Inflation Linked Bond Sale |
| 0235BST | 0935HKT | 1235AEDT | New Zealand 2031, 2034 Bond Sale |
| 0300BST | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | Tokyo Sep Office Vacancies |
| 0330BST | 1030HKT | 1330AEDT | Japan 6mth Bill Sale |
| 0335BST | 1035HKT | 1335AEDT | Japan 5yr Bond Sale |
| 0700BST | 1400HKT | 1700AEDT | Japan Sep P Machine Tool Orders |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
US FISCAL: FY2025 Deficit On Low Side, With Tariffs Offsetting Debt Servicing
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates in its Monthly Budget Review that the federal government posted a fiscal surplus of $160B in September, vs a $345B deficit in August. That would be much more positive than the $55B expected by Bloomberg consensus, if confirmed by the Treasury's monthly report (technically due out Friday as the 8th business day of the year, but the first release of the new fiscal year usually comes out later).
- September was also the final month of the 2025 fiscal year, which would make the full-year deficit $1.809T - $8B smaller than the 2024 deficit of $1.817T. Even so, that flatters the 2024 outcome relative to 2025, due to timing shifts at the start of FY2024 without which the FY2025 deficit would have been $80B smaller than 2024's.
- For the year, outlays rose $301B (+4%) to $7.0T as "higher in several areas, including the largest benefit programs and net interest on the public debt (which, for the first time, surpassed $1 trillion)", with receipts up $308B (+6%) to $5.2T.
- We await the full Treasury report but the standouts are that corporate income taxes fell 15% Y/Y ($77B) with individual taxes up 6% Y/Y ($260B) and customs duties (including tariffs) up 153% ($118B to $195B). Net interest on the public debt rose $80B to $1.03T.
- This is a smaller deficit than CBO's projection in January 2025 ($1.9T) and "all told, revenues and outlays alike were slightly more than the totals projected in January."
- By our estimates it's possible the deficit will come in just below 6% of GDP, depending on growth in the Jul-Sep quarter, for the first time since FY2022 (FY2024's deficit was 6.4% of GDP).
- The CBO's regular 10-year outlook serves as a benchmark for broader expectations of the longer-term fiscal dynamics and will be eyed upon its expected release in January 2026.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Wave
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4083 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3982 200-dma
- PRICE: 1.3954 @ 16:31 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 1.3889/3839 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
USDCAD continues to trade just ahead of its recent highs. A bull cycle remains intact. The breach of 1.3959, the Sep 26 high, reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3834, the 50-day EMA.
