EU HEALTHCARE: Sandoz Group: 100% Tariffs (SDZSW; Baa2/BBB/NR)
"Starting October 1st, 2025, we will be imposing a 100% Tariff on any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product, unless a Company IS BUILDING their Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant in America,” - WSJ
• Thin on details and given that the industry has so far committed $350bn of investment into the US (WSJ numbers) most companies should have a get-out here.
• Of course, we don't know what the hurdle would be to avoid tariffs.
• Sandoz is most exposed here as Generics are key to their business.
• Sandoz in Q1 reported only ONE US manufacturing site out of a total of 15. The US site is dedicated to serving US customers with North America representing 21% of sales.
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BTP TECHS: (U5) In A Range
- RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
- PRICE: 120.36 @ Close Aug 26
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the direction remains up. However, for now, the contract continues to trade inside a range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a range breakout and a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 92.15 High Aug 11
- RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 91.45 High Aug 15
- RES 1: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 90.41 @ Close Aug 25
- SUP 1: 90.25 Low Aug 22
- SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and a key support
- SUP 3: 90.0089.99/ Psychological round number / Low Apr 9 (cont)
- SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and yesterday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend - for now. First support to watch is 90.25, the Aug 26 low. A break would resume the bear leg and open the 90.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 91.24, the Aug 18 high.
MNI CHINA MONEY MKT INDEX AUG LQDTY OUTLOOK 48.9 VS JULY 46.8
- MNI CHINA MONEY MKT INDEX AUG LQDTY OUTLOOK 48.9 VS JULY 46.8
- MNI CHINA MMI CURRENT LQDTY CONDITIONS AUG 37.2 VS JULY 25.3
- MNI CHINA MMI ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AUG 56.4 VS JULY54.3
