MNI ECB Review: Market Maintains Mildest Of Easing Biases

Download Full Report Here

• The ECB left its three key rates unchanged again, including the deposit rate at 2.00%, as fully expected.
• The decision statement offered no surprises, noting general resilience with an expected caveat from the uncertain outlook whilst reiterating data-dependence and a meeting-by-meeting approach.
• There were some hawkish tweaks to Lagarde’s press conference, with some downside risks mitigated, but they were consistent with a tone that would be expected after recent stronger-than-expected domestic data and global events.
• Today’s communications had no discernible impact on rate cut expectations, with a 1bp cut eyed for Dec and 11.5bp of cumulative cuts out to Sep 2026.
• Reuters post-meeting sources see policymakers gearing up for “something of a showdown” with the Dec meeting and its new economic projections, echoing sentiment from a MNI sources piece on Oct 24.