SOUTH AFRICA: S. Africa Prepares For G20 Snub But Won't Boycott Meetings
- Presidential spokesman Vincent Magwenya said that South Africa was prepared to 'take a commercial break [from G20 meetings] until we resume normal programming' after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the country would not be invited to the group's 2026 summit in Miami. Rubio signalled that the US would invite Poland instead, noting that the country's economic success was 'proof that a focus on the future is a better path than one on grievances.' Separately, Deputy President Paul Mashatile said that South Africa won't boycott next year's G20 events and will continue engaging US officials.
- The African National Congress's (ANC's) Johannesburg branch enters the final day of its regional conference, with incumbent Dada Morero and Finance MMC Louiso Masuku competing for provincial party leadership. The results are expected anytime now. Mail & Guardian reported that the event was rocked by allegations of vote-buying. Whoever wins will lead the party to the 2026 mayoral election against Democratic Alliance (DA) Federal Chair and political veteran Helen Zille.
- South Africa's gross reserves rose to $72.07bn in November from $71.55bn prior, with net reserves up to $70.02bn from $69.36bn.
- The National Treasury is looking to sell 1.875% 2033, 5.125% 2043 and 2.500% 2050 linkers today.
- Spot USD/ZAR broke below 17.0 yesterday, extending losses this morning.
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GERMAN DATA: Factory Orders Recover A Little In September
- German factory orders were a little stronger than expected in September, at 1.1% M/M amid an August upward revision to -0.4% (-0.8% unrevised). By itself, September represents some recovery in the series but not a material one considering index levels continue to print not far off cycle lows.
- "When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were 1.9% higher than in the previous month. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders were 3.0% lower in the 3rd quarter of 2025 than in the 2nd quarter; when large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were down 1.5%", Destatis comments.
- "Month-on-month increases seen in the automotive industry (+3.2%) and the manufacture of electrical equipment (+9.5%). The growth in new orders for the manufacture of other transport equipment (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles; +7.5%) also had a positive effect. By contrast, the decline in new orders for the manufacture of fabricated metal products (-19.0%) dragged" on drivers.
- Real turnover in manufacturing (released simultaneously with factory orders) would imply downside for tomorrow's IP vs the 3.0% M/M rebound expected (which would follow a very weak -4.3% in August partially on the back of some temporary summer factory closures). The relationship between the two prints has sometimes been a bix mixed in recent months, however.
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 176.50 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 176.10 Low Nov 4
- SUP 2: 175.06 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 173.46 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
The trend in EURJPY is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The cross traded to a fresh cycle high last Thursday, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. This opens 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.06. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is 178.82, Oct 30 high.
JPY: Mimura Headlines Don't Suggest Intervention An Imminent Risk
Comments crossing from Japan's top currency official Mimura in recent minutes. Seems to have helped USDJPY inch away from session highs.
However, while the comments suggest officials are concerned/are monitoring FX movements, they do not indicate intervention is an imminent risk.
- "*JAPAN'S MIMURA: RECENT YEN MOVES DEVIATE FROM FUNDAMENTALS" bbg
- "*MIMURA: YEN LONG POSITIONS HAVE BEEN SHRINKING AFTER SUMMER"
- "*MIMURA: SPECULATION, GEOPOLITICS, TRADE ALL AFFECTING MARKET"
- "*MIMURA: FX EXCESSIVE VOLATILITY, NOT LEVELS, MAIN CONCERN"
Prior examples of "intervention risk" type comments to watch out for: "We can't tolerate speculative moves."...."We will take appropriate action if needed." ...."We're ready to take action at any time."
