US-RUSSIA: Russia Will Wait For 'Concrete Peace Initiatives' From Trump, Lavrov
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters that Russia will “study” US President-elect Donald Trump’s peace initiatives on Ukraine, “when he takes office,” another signal that a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may not take place in the early period of Trump’s second term.
- Lavrov added, per Reuters: “We will wait for concrete peace initiatives on Ukraine.”
- Moscow appears to be adopting a wait-and-see strategy on Trump talks, with the Trump team managing expectations that a resolution to the conflict can be achieved within the first 100 days of the administration.
- The final days of the Biden administration have seen a push to strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position, hitting Moscow with sweeping sanctions on Russia’s energy sector and surging military hardware to assist with fortifying Ukrainian control of Russia’s Kursk region.
- Lavrov also addressed Trump’s comments on Greenland: “People of Greenland should be listened to first.” The Greenland comments are among the most geostrategically important of Trump's recent hawkish statements considering Moscow’s established presence in the Arctic and China’s self-declared status as a ‘near-Arctic state’, via which Beijing likely seeks greater influence over Arctic governance. Both will have long-term implications for hydrocarbon and mineral rights, navigation, and military predominance.
- The Arctic Institute think tank noted this week: “Russian political experts suggest that the likelihood of Trump getting involved in a conflict with NATO allies over Greenland is low...” However, a renegotiated US-Greenland military accord could degrade Russia's long-term influence in the Arctic.
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MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Inflation Data Keep Fed Cut On Track
We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Macro Weekly offering succinct MNI analysis across the range of macro developments over the past week. Please find the full report here:
USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4393 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4327 2.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4296 2.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- PRICE: 1.4236 @ 16:38 GMT Dec 13
- SUP 1: 1.4069/3944 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend direction in USDCAD remains up and this week’s gains to a fresh cycle high, reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair has cleared 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, to confirm resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4246 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.4069, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Extending Late Session Lows, Curves Bear Steepen Ahead Next Wed's FOMC
- Treasuries traded steadily lower throughout Friday's session, initially mirroring weak action in Bunds and Gilts. By the close, the Mar'25 10Y contract slipped to 109-26 (-18) the lowest level since November 22, 10Y yield rising to 4.4046% high (+.0768).
- Initial technical support at 109-22 (76.4% Nov 15 - Dec 6 Upleg) followed by 109-20 (Low Nov 20/21).
- Curves bear steepened: 2s10s +2.272 at 15.568 as short end rates outperformed ahead of next week's FOMC policy announcement where another 25bp rate cut was expected but not certain amid current macro and political uncertainty. That said, the latest unemployment and inflation data have kept the FOMC on track to cut the federal funds rate by 25bp (to 4.25-4.50%) next Wednesday.
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look near steady to lower vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Dec'24 cumulative -24.3bp (-23.7bp), Jan'25 -28.6bp (-29.6bp), Mar'25 -42.2bp (-43.9bp), May'25 -48.4bp (-50.5bp).
- No reaction to this morning's import/export prices, Monday brings flash S&P Global PMIs, Retail Sales, IP & Cap-U on Tuesday.
