RUSSIA: MNI CBR Preview: October 2024
Oct-24 10:16
- The CBR is expected to hike the key rate by 100bps to 20%, with the recent surge in household inflation expectations and tightness in the labour market leaving the Bank little to no room to pause.
- Meanwhile, early signs of slower price increases and more moderate economic activity data will likely limit the size of the hike to just 100bps.
- As per a Bloomberg survey, 9 out of 13 analysts expect a 100bp hike to be delivered (2 expect no change and 2 expect a larger hike).
See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
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EGB SYNDICATION: Slovenia 3.00% Mar-34 SlovGB tap: Update
Sep-24 10:15
- Guidance revised to MS+60bp (was MS+62bps area)
- Size: EUR benchmark size tap increase
- Books in excess of E2.5bln (inc E150mln JLM interest)
- Settlement Date: 1 October 2024 (T+5)
- Joint Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D), Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, J.P. Morgan
- ISIN: SI0002104576
- Timing: Books open, today's business
From market source
EGB SYNDICATION: Spain 12-year ObliEi: Final terms
Sep-24 10:10
- Size set at E4bln (the middle of the E3-5bln range MNI had expected)
- Books closed in excess of E51bln pre-rec (inc E4.7bln JLM interest)
- Spread set earlier at 0.70% Nov-33 ObliEi RY + 22bps
- Guidance was 0.70% Nov-33 ObliEi RY + 25bps area then +23bps +/-1bp WPIR
- Maturity: 30-Nov-2036
- Settlement: 01-Oct-2024 (T+5)
- Coupon: Fixed, annual ACT/ACT, full first on 30-Nov-2024
- ISIN: ES0000012O18
- Bookrunners: CITI / CACIB / GSBE / MS (B&D/DM) / SANTAN / SGCIB
- Timing: Books closed - allocations and pricing later today
From market source
NOK: USDNOK Pierces Key June 4 Support
Sep-24 10:10
USDNOK has pierced key support at 10.4354 (Jun 4 low), as the krone finds support from China stimulus-driven bids in equities and crude oil. Today’s price action extends the latest leg of NOK strength following last week’s Norges Bank decision.
- USDNOK has fallen ~4.5% from the Sep 11 high, and a sustained breach of the Jun 4 support would strengthen a bearish theme.
- This would expose trendline support drawn from the December 2022 low.
- EURNOK has similarly tested the Aug 30 low at 11.6133, currently 0.35% lower today.
- Domestic developments take somewhat of a backseat this week following last Thursday’s Norges Bank decision, where the rate path/guidance re-affirmed that rates were likely to stay on hold until early 2025.
- Unemployment data is due on Thursday and Friday this week, but these are not usually market movers.
- This will leave NOK crosses sensitive to movements in global risk sentiment and US data, including Friday’s PCE report.
