INR: Rupee Weakness Broadly Contained, Local Traders Warn of Complacency

Source: EMMI/Bloomberg

• EUR001W        2.4140 0.0070
• EUR001M         2.3410 -0.0160
• EUR003M         2.3230 -0.0260
• EUR006M         2.2590 -0.0440
• EUR012M         2.2350 -0.0760

• MNI: EUROZONE FEB RETAIL SALES +0.3% M/M, +2.3% Y/Y

Eurozone retail trade volumes in February were two-tenths softer than consensus in M/M terms at 0.3% (vs 0.5% consensus), though January was revised up to flat from -0.3%. Overall these revisions saw the February 2025 index level at 101.7 (versus an unrevised 101.1 in January which was revised up to 101.4) so retail trade volumes were overall a little higher than imputed from both the M/M and Y/Y consensus data.

• These revisions saw Y/Y volume growth higher than expected at 2.3% Y/Y (vs 1.9% consensus), and above January's upwardly revised value of 1.8% from 1.5%.
• The monthly increase (albeit softer than expected) was driven by an increase in all sub components - though 'Food, drinks, and tobacco' sales rose at a slower pace than in January, increasing 0.3% M/M (after 0.5% in January, revised a tenth lower from 0.6%).
• Non-food products (ex-fuel) sales volume rose 0.3% M/M. This more than reversed January's decline of 0.2% M/M, which was a notable revision higher from -0.7% M/M.
• Automotive fuel sales edged up 0.2% M/M, after a flat reading in January (revised up from -0.3% M/M).
• Retail Confidence according to the European Commission weakened to -6.8 in March from -5.1 in February - the lowest since October 2024.
• The ECB staff forecast private consumption to increase 0.3% Q/Q in Q1-25. This data (including the revisions) probably makes that look a bit more achievable (albeit we still need a decent March).

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