CANADA: RTRS-Gov't To Announce $28.9B In Retaliatory Tariffs Responding To Trump

Mar-12 11:32

Jarrett Renshaw at Reuters posts on X: "Canada will announce $29.8 billion in retaliatory tariffs this morning in response to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, a Canadian source tells me."

  • The US has imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium imports as of midnight, although this is a step back from the 50% threatened by US President Donald Trump on 11 March. This in turn, came in response to Ontario Premier Doug Ford's plan for a 25% surcharge on electricity exports from the province that serve three US states along the border. Ford temporarily suspended the imposition of the surcharge on 11 March after US Commerce Sec Howard Lutnick agreed to a fresh round of trade talks.
  • The see-saw trade war comes as new Liberal party leader Mark Carney continues to put together his new cabinet ahead of taking over from Justin Trudeau as PM on an as-yet-undetermined date. The Toronto Star reports, "Carney is expected to appoint a new cabinet in the days ahead that will be smaller than Trudeau’s current team. [...] With U.S. President Donald Trump continuing to threaten Canada’s economy with tariffs, Carney may consider keeping the ministers working on those negotiations, like Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly and Public Safety Minister David McGuinty, in place."

Historical bullets

STIR: Fed Rate Path Consolidates NFP Hawkish Shift

Feb-10 11:30
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from Friday’s close, with little net impact from President Trump saying Sunday he will impose fresh 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
  • It does however help consolidate the hawkish shift seen on Friday’s NFP report. See a recap of it here and a summary of all the main macro developments of the week here.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2bp Mar, 7.5bp May, 15bp Jun, 20bp Jul, 26.5bp Sep and 36.5bp Dec.
  • Today sees a particularly light macro docket, with calendar focus on Chair Powell’s Senate testimony on Tue before CPI on Wed. Of course, politics will remain at the fore with Trump having pledged to announce reciprocal tariffs on Tue or Wed. 
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BUNDS: Block trade

Feb-10 11:26

Bund Block trade, suggest seller:

  • RXH5 ~2.14k at 133.29.

LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: NY Fed Inflation Expectations, Tsy Bill Sales

Feb-10 11:26
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 10-Feb 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.0% prior, --)
  • 10-Feb 1130 US Tsy $84B 13W & $72B 26W Bill auctions