FED: Rough Transcript of Powell's Press Conference

According to a new survey from the Pew Research Center, 74% of Americans view the war in Ukraine as important to US national interests – with 43% describing it as very important.

• The report notes, “similar shares see the war between Israel and Hamas (75%) and tensions between China and Taiwan (75%) as important to U.S. national interests… When asked how important each conflict is to them personally, 59% of Americans say the war between Russia and Ukraine is important to them.”
• Comes as the White House increases pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to permit a floor vote on the Senate-passed USD$95 billion foreign aid package after Russia won a major battlefield victory in Avdiivka.
• Johnson said in a statement on Saturday: “As Congress debates the best path forward to support Ukraine, the United States, and our partners, must be using every means available to cut off Putin’s ability to fund his unprovoked war in Ukraine and aggression against the Baltic states.”

Figure 1: Voter Perceptions of Global Conflicts

Source: Pew Research Center

• RES 4: 152.43 0.764 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 2: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 150.89 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 150.16 @ 15:59 GMT Feb 19
• SUP 1: 148.43/147.26 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 3: 145.59 Low Jan 16
• SUP 4: 144.36 Low Jan 12

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback appears to be a correction. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and note that Tuesday’s gains resulted in a break of 149.75, the Nov 22 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 high and the Oct 1 ‘22 high and major resistance. Initial firm support lies at 148.43, the 20-day EMA.

President Biden's approval rating continues to track below the symbolic 40% benchmark, despite a recent uptick in economic confidence, according to data for 538.

• Gallup noted in their most recent nationwide survey: "Several key indicators of the 2024 election environment indicate that President Joe Biden faces an uphill climb to win a second term. His job approval rating, Americans’ satisfaction with how things are going in the country and their confidence in the economy are below the levels associated with successful reelection bids in recent elections."
• According to ElectionBettingOdds, an aggregator of data from betting and prediction markets, former President Donald Trump has been attributed an implied probability of over 50% of winning the presidential election in November since late January - compared to just over 30% for Biden.

Figure 1: President Biden Approval Rating

Source: 538