PERU: Robust Q3 GDP Growth to Reinforce Expectations For BCRP Dec Rate Hold
Nov-21 12:10
- After better-than-expected September economic activity data last weekend, Q3 GDP forecasts have ticked up to 3.4% y/y, suggesting that the economy continues to grow around its potential rate. This would mark an improvement from a 2.8% y/y expansion in Q2, with the data set to be released sometime later today.
- Monthly data suggest that the economy grew by around 0.9% q/q in Q3, supported by a pick-up in manufacturing and construction activity and resilience in the service sector. Looking ahead, growth looks set to remain supported by a recovery in investment, as the government continues to push for an acceleration in new mining projects. This would keep the economy on course to grow by around 3.2% this year, with latest consensus forecasts for 2026 currently sitting at 2.9%, according to Bloomberg.
- 3Q GDP YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 2.8%
- Last week, the BCRP said that almost all activity indicators remained in “optimistic territory” around the potential rate, as it left its reference rate at 4.25%. Going forward, with the real policy rate only just above the neutral level, many analysts expect the BCRP to remain on hold in December, although the benign inflation backdrop keeps the door open to a potential rate cut in the coming meetings.
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SOFR OPTIONS: BLOCK/Screen Update: Mar'26 SOFR Put Spread Buy
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Oct-22 12:05
Latest source reporting from Bloomberg on US Bank capital proposals:
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- "Some officials have calculated that the terms of the Fed’s plan would lead to an increase of between about 3% and 7% in aggregate for most big banks, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the plans. Although there’s no specific projection in the outline, those estimates are lower than the 19% increase in the 2023 proposal and the 9% bump floated in a compromise version last year."
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Oct-22 12:05
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- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
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