USDCAD TECHS: Reversal Extends

Jan-23 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4023 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg     
  • RES 3: 1.3977 High Dec 4
  • RES 2: 1.3950 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg 
  • RES 1: 1.3852/3929 50-day EMA / High Jan 16
  • PRICE: 1.3743 @ 16:06 GMT Jan 23
  • SUP 1: 1.3734 Low Jan 23
  • SUP 2: 1.3710 76.4% retracement of the Dec 26 - Jan 16 bull leg  
  • SUP 3: 1.3643 Low Dec 26 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23 ‘25  

Recent weakness in USDCAD appears corrective - for now. However, price has breached support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3833, and continues to trend lower. This highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for a deeper retracement - towards 1.3710, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3929, the Jan 16 high. A move through this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bull theme.   

Historical bullets

FED: US TSY TO SELL $77.000 BLN 26W BILL DEC 29, SETTLE JAN 02

Dec-24 17:05
  • US TSY TO SELL $77.000 BLN 26W BILL DEC 29, SETTLE JAN 02

FED: US TSY TO SELL $86.000 BLN 13W BILL DEC 29, SETTLE JAN 02

Dec-24 17:05
  • US TSY TO SELL $86.000 BLN 13W BILL DEC 29, SETTLE JAN 02

US TSYS: Tsys Extended Highs Ahead Early Christmas Holiday Close

Dec-24 17:02
  • Treasuries look to finish moderately higher on Wednesday's shortened Christmas eve session, extending the top end of a narrow session range after the Tsy 7Y Note auction traded slightly through: 3.930% high yield vs. WI of 3.932%; bid-to-cover at 2.51x vs. 2.46x prior.
  • TYH6 currently trades +5.5 at 112-15 vs. -15.5 high on very light volume (462k), key short-term resistance well above at 112-31, the Dec 18 high.
  • Treasury curves mildly flatter: 2s10s -.903 at 61.963, 5s30s -1.367 at 107.314.
  • Cross asset roundup: Bloomberg US$ index lower/inside range: BBDXY -1.36 at 1200.53, Gold weaker by 7.04 at 4477.51, stocks firmer with SPX eminis +24.00 at 6985.00.
  • Markets closed for Christmas tomorrow, back to full session on Friday. Only one data release Friday: Dallas Fed weekly economic index at 1130ET. No scheduled Fed speakers Friday.