US DATA: Revelio Publishes Another Soft Initial Payrolls Report

• EUR/USD: Feb05 $1.1725(E1.3bln), $1.1800(E2.3bln), $1.1825-35(E1.5bln); Feb06 $1.1800(E2.5bln), $1.2000(E3.3bln); Feb09 $1.1900(E2.7bln)
• USD/JPY: Feb05 Y153.00($1.6bln), Y154.00($1.1bln), Y155.00($1.0bln)
• AUD/USD: Feb05 $0.6840-50(A$1.4bln); Feb06 $0.6875-90(A$2.1bln); Feb09 $0.6860(A$1.5bln), $0.6900(A$1.6bln)

• RES 4: 112-31   High Dec 18 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 112-22   High Jan 7 
• RES 2: 112-07+ 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 112-02   High Feb 02
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-18 @ 16:48 GMT Feb 03
• SUP 1: 111-09   Low Jan 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 111-00   Round number support
• SUP 3: 110-30+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing  
• SUP 4: 110-22+ 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing

The sharp pullback in Treasuries from Monday’s high reinforces the overarching bearish trend condition. The next important resistance to watch is 112-07+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. Until then, gains are considered corrective and for bears, sights are on key support at 111-09, the Jan 20 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

WSJ reports that, "Iranian officials threatened to pull out of the talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner that were poised to take place Friday in Turkey, people familiar with the matter said. It wasn’t immediately clear what triggered the threats. Regional powers have worked to set up the talks over Tehran’s nuclear program in hopes of opening a diplomatic pathway to avert a possible war."

• Tensions between Iran and the US have receded a little compared to last week, when Trump threatened significant military action in social media posts. Nevertheless, the continued significant US naval presence in the region means a strike could come at any time. Incidents such as the reported approach of Iranian gunboats towards a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early on 3 Feb risk acting as the spark to a much broader conflagration.
• US special envoy is currently meeting with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as Mossad spy agency chief David Barnea, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Israeli Military Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. The Israeli team are expected to try to push the US to take a hard-line stance towards Iran in the upcoming talks between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Istanbul, Turkey on Friday, 6 Feb. Reuters reports that according to Iranian sources, US President Donald Trump set three preconditions for resuming talks: Zero enrichment of uranium in Iran; limits on Tehran's ballistic missile programme; and ending its support for regional proxies. These are all key aims for Israel as well.