UK DATA: Retail sales were soft; but signal distorted by Budget and Black Friday
Retail sales was on the soft side but not disastrous here with some upward revisions. We always prefer to look at Nov/Dec together due to the timing of purchases over the holiday period (which may have been particularly impacted this year by Budget uncertainty). Also there are concerns over the ONS' Black Friday seasonal adjustments - so this data is probably less reliable than usual.
- The ONS notes that non-store retailing fell 2.9%M/M as demand for gold slowed, while supermarket sales fell for the fourth consecutive month.
- We don't expect any real policy signal from this print.
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USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 156.58 2.236 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 3: 156.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 1: 155.73 High Nov 18
- PRICE: 155.49 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 153.68 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 3: 151.74 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21
A fresh cycle high in USDJPY yesterday confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of recent gains. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the 156.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch is 153.68, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
UK DATA: Services lower (but air fares soft); food softer than BOE above cons
- Headline CPI only 4 hundredths below BOE forecast with a weak 3.6%Y/Y rounded print (3.56% unrounded).
- Services was a tenth lower than the BOE forecast but note that air fares were only 1.68%M/M - that's at the bottom end of expectations which ranged from around flat to as high as 20-25%M/M.
- Food prices higher than consensus expected but lower than the BOE forecast.
UK DATA: 2dp UK CPI
- Headline 3.56%Y/Y in October (MNI median 3.51%, BOE 3.6%, 3.78% in September)
- Core 3.38%Y/Y in October (MNI median 3.4%, 3.52% in September)
- Services 4.49%Y/Y in October (MNI median 4.585%, BOE 4.6%, 4.69% in September)
- NEIG 1.49%Y/Y in October (MNI median 1.4%, 1.49% in September)
- Energy 1.84%Y/Y in October (MNI median 1.885%, BOE 1.75%, 4.34% in September)
- Food, alcohol, tobacco 5.16%Y/Y in October (MNI median 4.77%, 4.86% in September)
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages 4.91%Y/Y in October (MNI median 4.74%, BOE 5.0%, 4.53% in September)
