UK DATA: Retail sales revisions unlikely to change any MPC member's vote in Nov
- In terms of market reaction - retail sales data had been holding up pretty well overall in recent months. So today's corrections / revisions take some of the shine off of that.
- It is unlikely to alter the opinion of any of August's hawkish dissenters, and we know that Bailey and Ramsden in particular are more focused on the labour market data than growth data.
- On the margin it is a dovish development - and will go into the mix - but retail sales is always taken with a pinch of salt given its volatility at the best of times.
- It's unlikely to materially change any MPC member's vote, but the market does sometimes still react to these data.
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GOLD TECHS: Returns Higher
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3390.5/3439.0 - High Aug 5 / 23
- PRICE: $3377.1 @ 07:23 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
Gold benefited from the soft NFP print on Friday, returning prices toward the top-end of the recent range. This supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3325.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.
WTI TECHS: (U5) Fades Further
- RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $65.56 @ 07:07 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: $65.48/62.84 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive session into the Tuesday close, keeping S/T momentum pointed lower. Support to watch remains the 50-day EMA, at $65.48 - a level pierced yesterday. A clear break would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level at the close. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point.
BUNDS: Long End supply is the early focus
- A very light session for Bund Overnight, in fact looking at some of the quotes Overnight, the contract was at time quoted 2 ticks wide.
- Nonetheless, the contract is still closer to its two Weeks high printed Yesterday at 130.60 during the European Cash Equity Open and not post the US ISM Services miss Yesterday afternoon.
- Today's low in Bund (130.28) was were it was trading at pre US ISM, while Today's high of 130.41 was the small downside Opening Gap, which is closed.
- Very short Term Risk is skewed to the upside and the main initial resistance in Bund comes at 130.76.
- Small support comes at the 130.00 figure.
- There are no real Tier 1 Data for today, German Factory Orders had no impact on Govies, not a known Market mover, Italy IP and EU Retail Sales aren't known market movers either.
- SUPPLY: Focus will be on Supply, German 2038, 2042 (equates to 19.2k Buxl) could weigh into the bidding deadline, US Sells $42bn of 10yr Notes.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Cook, Collins, Daly.
