AUDUSD TECHS: Resend - Trend Needle Still Points South

Sep-26 09:08
  • RES 4: 0.6838 50-day EMA
  • RES 3: 0.6747 High Sep 20
  • RES 2: 0.6656 High Sep 23
  • RES 1: 0.6550 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 0.6523 @ 10:02 BST Sep 26
  • SUP 1: 0.6484 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 0.6464 61.8% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 0.6402 Low May 15 2020
  • SUP 4: 0.6373 Low May 4 2020

AUDUSD has resumed its downtrend today. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. The break strengthens bearish conditions and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This has opened 0.6451 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6747, the Sep 20 high.

Historical bullets

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U2) Outlook Deteriorating

Aug-26 22:15
  • RES 3: 97.455 - High Mar 18
  • RES 2: 97.185/275 - High Apr 5 / 200-dma
  • RES 1: 97.040 - High Aug 03
  • PRICE: 96.395 @ 15:51 BST Aug 26
  • SUP 1: 96.275 - Low Aug 25
  • SUP 2: 96.208 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
  • SUP 3: 95.663 - Low Jun 16

Aussie 10yr futures slipped further Thursday and have dipped below key support at 96.355, Jul 22 low. This weakens the bull cycle posted since mid-June, opening the gap with the 200-dma on the continuation contract, at 97.275. The bull trigger is 97.040, the Aug 3 high. On the downside, recent weakness suggests scope for a deeper retracement towards the mid-Jun low of 95.663.

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Late Dec 2Y Buy

Aug-26 20:01

+5,000 TUZ2 104-09.62, buy through 104-09.38 post-time offer at 1549:16ET

USDCAD TECHS: Still Trading Below Tuesday’s High

Aug-26 20:00
  • RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.3135 High Jul 15
  • RES 2: 1.3107 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 downleg
  • RES 1: 1.3063 High Aug 23
  • PRICE: 1.2998 @ 16:37 BST Aug 26
  • SUP 1: 1.2887 50-day EMA values
  • SUP 2: 1.2828/2764 Low Aug 17 / 200-dma
  • SUP 3: 1.2728 Low Aug 11 and key support
  • SUP 4: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg

USDCAD rallied into the Friday close having found support at the Thursday low, however, the pair remains below Tuesday’s 1.3063 short-term trend high. Near-term trend conditions still appear bullish following the recent strong recovery from 1.2728, the Aug 17 low. A resumption of gains and a break of 1.3063 would open 1.3107 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2887, the 50-day EMA.