IRAN: Reports-US, Iran Set Out Hardline Positions In Initial Ceasefire Proposals
Bloomberg News: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/us-awaits-response-to-peace- plan...
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BONDS: US Treasuries and Gilt Roll Pace (updated)
Over 60% of the front Month Volume in Tnotes and Gilt are spread related, First Notice for Gilt is the 26th and 27th for US Treasuries. Expect for these to be fully active at the start of the Week.
PACE:
- WNA: 22% (below pace).
- USA: 21% (below pace).
- UXY: 22% (below pace).
- TYA: 25% (below pace).
- FVA: 32% (above pace).
- TUA: 30% (above pace).
- Gilt: 24% (as of Thursday).
STIR: Contained Reaction In EUR STIRs To Weekend Tariff Developments
- Fairly contained reaction in EUR STIRs to the latest bout of US tariff uncertainty. ECB-dated OIS continue to price 8bps of easing through year-end. The 15% tariffs imposed under Section 122 leaves the EU facing unchanged tariff rates relative to IEEPA.
- On Sunday, Chairman of the EU Parliament’s trade committee, Bernd Lange, said he will propose suspending approval work on the US trade deal – a reminder that the process was frozen in January amid Greenland tensions. ECB President Lagarde said that these new US tariff moves risk upsetting the EU/US’s negotiated “equilibrium”.
- Speculation around Lagarde’s possible early exit from the bank remains a talking point. Bloomberg sources said that “a number of Governing Council members are perplexed by the lack of pushback to the speculation” – we had noted last week that Lagarde’s comments to the WSJ on the reports certainly kept her options open.
- After the February PMIs were more resilient than expected last Friday, this week’s focus will be on the final January inflation print (Wednesday) and flash February inflation data from France, Spain and Germany on Friday.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-26 | 1.929 | -0.3 |
| Apr-26 | 1.923 | -0.9 |
| Jun-26 | 1.903 | -2.9 |
| Jul-26 | 1.896 | -3.6 |
| Sep-26 | 1.870 | -6.3 |
| Oct-26 | 1.857 | -7.5 |
| Dec-26 | 1.853 | -7.9 |
| Jan-27 | 1.859 | -7.3 |
| Mar-27 | 1.873 | -5.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
SILVER TECHS: Bear Threat
- RES 4: $121.654 - High Jan 30 and key resistance
- RES 3: $106.895 - Low Jan 29
- RES 2: $92.204/100.000 - High Feb 4 / Round number resistance
- RES 1: $87.839 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $85.908 @ 08:08 GMT Feb 23
- SUP 1: $64.098 - Low Feb 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $61.136 - 0.618 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: $53.797 - 0.618 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Former key resistance area and major support
A bear threat in Silver remains present despite recent gains. Note that the move lower since Jan 29 highlights an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition. The metal has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, and sights are on $61.136 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 92.204, the Feb 4 high.
