REFINING: Lightest US Autumn Refinery Maintenance Since 2021
US refiners are set for the lightest autumn refinery maintenance season in three years, with 529kbpd of capacity offline, according to IIR cited by Bloomberg, and about half the offline capacity from last year.
- The offline daily crude-processing capacity is the lowest for the period since 2021 following heavy maintenance seasons in recent years.
- Some refiners may be postponing turnarounds until next year, potentially leading to a heavier season in 2025.
- The light turnaround season may help to support crude demand but adds pressure to refiner’s profit margins. Cracks earlier this month fell to the lowest of the year at the end of muted demand from the driving season and after lackluster manufacturing activity in the US.
Source: Bloomberg
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US-CHINA: MoFA Criticises US Nuclear Strategy Shift Reported In NYT
(MNI) London - A spox for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) has said that China is 'seriously concerned' about a report regarding the US' nuclear deterrent strategy. This comes in response to a NYT article claiming that US President Joe Biden, "...approved in March a highly classified nuclear strategic plan for the United States that, for the first time, reorients America’s deterrent strategy to focus on China’s rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal."
- Spox claims that the 'US is peddling the China nuclear threat narrative, finding an excuse to seek a strategic advantage.' Says that 'China is not in an arms race with any country', and that China 'urges the US to earnestly fulfill its responsibility for nuclear disarmament, and further substantially reduce its nuclear arsenal'.
- NYT: "In the past, the likelihood that American adversaries could coordinate nuclear threats to outmaneuver the American nuclear arsenal seemed remote. But the emerging partnership between Russia and China, and the conventional arms North Korea and Iran are providing to Russia for the war in Ukraine have fundamentally changed Washington’s thinking."
- Reuters reports White House spox Sean Savett sought to downplay the supposed pivot reorietation towards China, satingsaying: "While the specific text of the Guidance is classified, its existence is in no way secret. The Guidance issued earlier this year is not a response to any single entity, country, nor threat."
GILTS: Citi & NatWest Bearish On Futures Roll
Citi and NatWest are the latest to flag bearish risks to the quarterly gilt futures roll (G U4/Z4).
- Outright long positioning remains the most prominent driver of those calls.
- First notice for G U4 is Thursday August 29.
