COMMODITIES: Recovery in WTI Futures Still Considered Corrective, For Now
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low. The 50-day EMA is at $66.12. The trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. The latest move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $2547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3184.2, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $1.1 or +1.73% at $64.78
- Natural Gas up $0.03 or +1.13% at $3.042
- Gold spot down $62.06 or -1.84% at $3318.74
- Copper up $3.15 or +0.64% at $496.25
- Silver up $0.39 or +1.19% at $32.9004
- Platinum up $10.08 or +1.05% at $970.41
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COMMODITIES: Gold Holding Onto Recent Gains, Sights on $3079.20 Next
Despite holding on to its recent gains, a bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.12, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of the downtrend would signal scope for an extension towards $63.73 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A clear uptrend in Gold is intact and last week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last Thursday’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on $3079.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Support is at $2962.0, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.2 or -0.29% at $68.15
- Natural Gas down $0.04 or -0.88% at $3.948
- Gold spot up $5.95 or +0.2% at $3027.73
- Copper up $6.7 or +1.31% at $517.9
- Silver up $0.23 or +0.71% at $33.27
- Platinum up $3.53 or +0.36% at $983.51
EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Starts the Week on a Firmer Note, But Trend Remains Bearish
Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The medium-term trend direction is up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5285.44. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a retracement towards 5160.00, the Feb 4 low. The bull trigger is 5516.00, the Mar 3 high. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged -they remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5801.77, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 5559.75, Mar 13 low.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 68.57 pts or -0.18% at 37608.49 and the TOPIX ended 13.28 pts lower or -0.47% at 2790.88.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 5.197 pts or +0.15% at 3370.028 and the HANG SENG ended 215.84 pts higher or +0.91% at 23905.56.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 136.08 pts or +0.59% at 23025.14, FTSE 100 higher by 42.06 pts or +0.49% at 8689.88, CAC 40 up 35.66 pts or +0.44% at 8079.32 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 27.74 pts or +0.51% at 5451.71.
- Dow Jones mini up 329 pts or +0.78% at 42649, S&P 500 mini up 57.5 pts or +1.01% at 5775.75, NASDAQ mini up 247 pts or +1.24% at 20207.75.
BUNDS: Looking at closing the Opening gap
- The German Bund is looking at closing the Opening gap, up to 128.48, the latest leg higher has been helped following the German Services PMI and Composite coming below consensus.
- EU PMIs are up at the top of the hour.
