COMMODITIES: Recent Pullback for WTI Futures Reinforces Bearish Theme
WTI futures have pulled back from their recent highs. This reinforces a bearish theme and suggests S/T gains are corrective. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. The key resistance is at $68.43, the Jul 30 high, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. The clear reversal lower refocuses attention on key support at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. A break of this level would reinstate the downtrend. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3700.1, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
- WTI Crude up $0.07 or +0.11% at $61.82
- Natural Gas down $0.05 or -1.38% at $3.428
- Gold spot up $9.74 or +0.25% at $3873.44
- Copper up $7.8 or +1.6% at $496.05
- Silver up $0.18 or +0.39% at $47.4824
- Platinum up $15.09 or +0.96% at $1580.7
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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Unrounded August EZ HICP
- Headline 2.05% (2.0% MNI tracking, 2.1% MNI median ahead of national data, 2.04% prior)
- FAT 3.21% (3.2% MNI median, 3.25% prior)
- NEIG 0.78% (0.7% MNI median, 0.76% prior)
- Energy -1.89% (-1.6% MNI median, -2.39% prior)
- Services 3.10% (3.1% MNI median, 3.15% prior)
- Core 2.27% (2.2% MNI median, 2.31% prior)
EUROPEAN INFLATION: HICP in line with consensus
- HICP came in line with consensus at 2.1% and a tenth above the MNI tracking of 2.0%.
- Core HICP surprised a tenth to the upside at 2.3%Y/Y while services CPI at 3.1% was in line with the MNI median.
- 2dp and more colour to follow.
COMMODITIES: Gold Extends Current Bull Cycle, Breaches Key Resistance at $3500
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Gold is trading sharply higher this week as the metal extends its bull cycle. Today’s gains have resulted in breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3381.8, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $1.67 or +2.61% at $65.68
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.6% at $2.979
- Gold spot up $1.43 or +0.04% at $3477.25
- Copper down $3.1 or -0.68% at $456.05
- Silver down $0.45 or -1.11% at $40.2417
- Platinum down $22.35 or -1.59% at $1385.23
