AUSTRALIA: Recent Polls Little Changed, Labour Looks Likely To Retain Government
Opinion polls continue to point to a return of the incumbent Labor government following Saturday’s federal election but it remains unclear whether it can hold onto its majority which is likely to depend on developments in a number of individual seats. In the first half of April, the average of surveys had a 2-party preferred breakdown of 53% to 47% in favour of Labor (ALP) and this has barely shifted in the second half of the month at 52.5% to 47.5%.
Australia opinion polls 2-party preferred %
- A poll hasn’t had the LNP in front on a 2-party preferred basis since end March.
- Polls are signalling that the centre-right opposition LNP could see a drop in its primary vote to around 34% from 36% at the May 2022 election, while the ALP is in line at 33%. The LNP’s vote seems to have shifted to the right-wing One Nation which surveys suggest has seen an increase in support to 8% from a 5% 2022 result. The left-wing Greens are at 13% after 12% in 2022.
- The last election saw a number of green Teals win seats as independents. The “other” vote may be stronger this year with the poll average in the second half of April at 12% after 10% in 2022, but this is down from 14% in March.
Australia opinion polls primary vote %
- The ALP holds 10 seats by less than a 4% margin with 4 under 1%. It is looking to win two Brisbane seats the Greens gained from the LNP in 2022 and hold by less than 4%.
- The LNP has 17 seats with less than 4% but a number of these faced a major independent challenger in 2022. There are 7 with less than 2%, including LNP leader Dutton’s, and could encounter serious competition especially from Teal candidates.
- Independents hold 5 seats by less than 3% including 4 Teals. The Teals won these off the LNP in 2022.
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CHINA PRESS: CSRC To Facilitate Overseas Listing
The China Securities Regulatory Commission will make the regulatory environment for companies going public overseas more transparent, efficient and predictable, Shanghai Securities News reported, citing a CSRC statement. The CSRC will optimise processes and further strengthen coordination and information sharing among departments, while also supporting Hong Kong to consolidate its international financial centre status, the statement said.
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The Ministry of Finance’s planned CNY500 billion special treasury bond issuance to replenish the core tier-one capital of four major state-owned banks will leverage CNY4 trillion of additional credit, Securities Daily reported, citing analysts’ expectations. The move will likely generate an eight-fold multiplier effect and increase banks’ capacity to serve the real economy, said Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities. The included banks, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank of China, had a core tier-one capital adequacy ratio of 12.2%, 14.48%, 10.24% and 9.56% by end-2024.
CHINA PRESS: PMI Result Shows Recovery But Demand Remains Low
China’s manufacturing PMI reached 50.5 in March, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and the highest since April 2024, demonstrating obvious signs of economic recovery, according to Zhang Liqun, a special analyst at the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. However, the purchasing volume and price indices both declined indicating oversupply and insufficient demand remained prominent, Zhang added. Looking ahead, officials need to increase the intensity of countercyclical adjustments and significantly strengthen government public investment to expand domestic demand, Zhang said.
