US DATA: Recapping Latest PCE Inflation Trends
Apr-30 14:18
Core PCE:
- 2.65% Y/Y drops from 2.96% in Feb for lowest since Jun 2024. However:
- 3.5% annualized over three months vs 2.4% in Dec
- 3.0% annualized over six months
Supercore PCE:
- 3.25% Y/Y from 3.65% in Feb for lowest since Jan. Recent trends also running hotter:
- 3.9% annualized over three months vs 3.7% in Dec
- 3.8% annualized over six months
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US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 10Y Call Sale
Mar-31 14:10
- -10,000 TYM5 112 calls, 57 ref 111-14
- Additional recent trade includes:
- 1,600 FVK5 108.5/109 call spds
- 4,500 TYM5 109/110 put spds ref 111-16.5
- 1,150 FVM5 108.5/111 1x3 call spds, 19.5 ref 108-13.25
US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: May'25/Jun'25 10Y Ratio Call Spread
Mar-31 13:56
Ratio call calendar spread crossed at 0944:24ET:
- -8,000 TYK5 111.5 calls, 53 vs.
- +12,500 TYM5 114 calls, 25 vs.
- 1,600 TYM5 111-19
US TSYS: Post-Chicago PMI React
Mar-31 13:52
- Treasury futures show little reaction to slightly higher than expected Chicago PMI data.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures trades 111-18 (+11.5) -- still off initial technical resistance of 111-22.5 (today's intraday high) -- next resistance above at 112-01 (High Mar 4 and a bull trigger), curves mildly flatter: 2s10s -.253 at 33.292, 5s30s -.616 at 64.155.
- Cross asset: Stocks renain under pressure (SPX eminis -82.50 at 5540.50), Gold making new highs over 3108.0, Bbg US$ index climbing higher at 1273.43 (+1.56).
