POLAND: Rail Track Damage Confirmed As Act Of Sabotage
Nov-17 08:27
- Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X that 'the worst suspicions were confirmed' and Poland was targeted by an act of sabotage, where an explosive device was planted and detonated on a key railway track. Over the weekend, a passenger train travelling along the Warsaw-Dęblin route had to make an emergency stop near the station in Życzyn after the driver noticed unusual damage to the tracks. Dęblin is home to the Polish Air Force Academy and a critical railroad junction along the Warsaw-Kyiv route. Tusk said that additional damage was reported on the same line, closer to the regional capital of Lublin.
- The recent months have seen an intensification of provocations with suspected origins in Russia in Poland and elsewhere in Europe, including a large drone incursion into Polish airspace in September. Operational Commander General Maciej Klisz told Rzeczpospolita that there were several hundred objects heading toward Poland, even as most were shot down or hit targets in western Ukraine and only 23 crossed the border. He added that fighter jets rather than surface-to-air systems were used to intercept the UAVs, because from a legal point of view it is easier for a pilot to fulfil the conditions for opening fire in peacetime than it would be for the operators of a ground-based air defence system.
- Law and Justice (PiS) MEP Piotr Müller told TVN24 that his party is aiming to govern alone after the 2027 elections, but could consider a coalition with the far-right Confederation. He expressed scepticism toward an alliance with ultra-right Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP), but said that he cannot imagine allowing Tusk to stay on as Prime Minister. Separately, party leader Jarosław Kaczyński said at an event that he would not rule out 'any alliances that would allow us to replace this government', despite his recent hostile exchanges with Confederation leaders.
- Poland re-opened two border crossings with Belarus in Kuźnica and Bobrowniki after four-year and two-and-a-half-year closures, respectively. The Interior Ministry said that the decision was made after reinforcing the border beyond official crossing points and boosting the rate of effective interceptions of illegal incursions to 98%. The earlier closures had imposed considerable costs on local businesses and triggered backlash from local entrepreneurs living off cross-border trade.
- The NBP will release official core CPI readings for October at 13:00GMT/14:00CET. In Bloomberg's poll of 10 economists, the median estimate for CPI ex-food and energy is +2.9% Y/Y, which would represent a significant drop from September's +3.2%.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
