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STIR: December Flash PMIs May Shift Positioning Ahead Of ECB Decision
The Eurozone December flash PMIs are not expected to meaningfully change the narrative at Thursday’s ECB decision, but may alter positioning heading into that event. Focus will be on whether the solid activity momentum seen in October and November is sustained, setting the stage for another improved GDP reading in Q4.
- ECB-dated OIS price 5bps of hikes through the end of next year, down from a hawkish extreme of 10bps at last Wednesday’s close.
- Consensus sees the Eurozone-wide composite reading at 52.6, which would be a touch below November's 52.8. Services is expected to moderate 0.3 points to 53.3, offset by an equal increase in manufacturing to 49.9. Over the last few months, manufacturing momentum has somewhat petered out, with composite growth being driven by the services sector.
- French data is due at 0815GMT, Germany at 0830GMT and the Eurozone-wide reading at 0900GMT.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Dec-25 | 1.934 | 0.4 |
| Feb-26 | 1.934 | 0.4 |
| Mar-26 | 1.928 | -0.2 |
| Apr-26 | 1.924 | -0.6 |
| Jun-26 | 1.912 | -1.8 |
| Jul-26 | 1.923 | -0.7 |
| Sep-26 | 1.939 | 0.9 |
| Oct-26 | 1.959 | 2.9 |
| Dec-26 | 1.982 | 5.2 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Wave Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6686 High Dec 10
- PRICE: 0.6643 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 0.6618/6592 Intraday low / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6560 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27
- SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
A recent strong impulsive rally in AUDUSD strengthens the current bull cycle. Sights are on key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. A breach of 0.6707 would further strengthen a bull theme. Note that the trend is overbought. A pullback would allow this condition to unwind. First support is at 0.6592, the 20-day EMA.
SOFR: SFRZ6/Z7 Sold
SFRZ6/Z7 ~4K given at 13.0.
