BRAZIL: Q3 GDP Growth Expected to Slow Further, Paving Way for Q1 2026 Rate Cut

Treasury questions are underway in the House of Commons. Livestream here. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and other Treasury ministers are facing questions from MPs on a range of topics related to the gov'ts economic policies. Comes just hours after Reeves' high-profile address from Downing Street in which she appeared to prepare the ground for tax increases in the upcoming 26 Nov budget, with the chancellor refusing to rule out manifesto promise-breaking increases to income tax, VAT or National Insurance contributions. 

• Reeves is in the chamber but has not answered any questions directed to her, with Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury Daniel Tomlinson and Economic Secretary to the Treasury Lucy Rigby taking questions. List of questions in advance can be found here. So far, Qs have focused on planned increases to inheritance tax that will hit farmers and access to banking in rural areas. May become more free-wheeling in terms of topics once 'topical questions' underway from around 12:15GMT. 

OI data points to net long setting dominating in the whites on Monday (only interrupted by net long cover in SFRU5), while net short setting dominated in the reds, greens and blues. Contracts finished mixed, flat to -/+1.0 vs. Friday's close. 

• In FX, a bear leg in EURUSD remains intact. Last week’s move down resulted in a breach of an important support at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. Note that 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, has also been cleared. An extension of the bear leg would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Initial resistance is at 1.1577, the Oct 22 low.
• A bear cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair has resumed its downtrend today. A key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low, has recently been cleared. The break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 17. Sights are on 1.3041 next, the Apr 14 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.3304, the 20-day EMA. Note that the trend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind.
• The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair is still trading closer to its recent trend highs. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 152.06, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.