EM ASIA CREDIT: Q1 Results: Thai Oil (TOPTB, Baa3/BBB/NR) - Weak
1Q results weak, possible S&P downgrade
• State backed Thai Oil, has reported Q1 results this morning, in which EBITDA declined -41% YoY to THB6.5bn though ahead of consensus (THB6.1bn).
• The bulk of the EBITDA decline came from the Refinery segment (-54%) with gross refining margins falling from $9.0/bbl in 1Q24 to $3.5/bbl in 1Q25. Margins are expected to decline again in 2Q on persistently high crude prices.
• In terms of credit metrics, LTM net debt to EBITDA was 7.3x for the quarter versus 6.1x at end FY24. S&P placed its BBB rating on watch negative last December, so possible cut to BBB- on the back of these results. Overall negative for spreads.
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US TSY FUTURES: TU Blocked
Latest block trade lodged at 07:06:46 London/02:06:46 NY:
- TUM5 2,528 lots blocked at 103-28, looks like a seller.
- DV01 ~$96.5K
WTI TECHS: (K5) Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: $74.66 - High Jan 22
- RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11
- RES 2: $68.36/72.28 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $64.85 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
- PRICE: $57.80 @ 07:10 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: $56.16 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 2: $54.26 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.81 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle low, today. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat and. Sights are on $56.16 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
BUNDS: A Volatile Cash Open, US is pressing on with Tariffs
- A Choppy Cash open for EGBs and Bund, selling interest keeps the German Bund heavy after Tariffs come into place, a whopping 104% for China.
- Compared to the US Tnotes (TYM5), Bund has seen a far more stable session, the US 10yr already trades in well over a 1 big figure range, the Yield had a quick test above 4.50%, printed a 4.5114% high, but has so far found support just ahead of the 110.00 Figure in futures.
- Bund has broken Yesterday's low, all Cash led, next support is seen towards ~128.70.
- There are no Tier 1 Data for the session, US Wholesales Inventories will be final reading, focus this Week is on the US CPI Tomorrow.
- Also Today, BOE FPC Meeting Record Released, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are scheduled.
- SUPPLY: UK £4.5bn 2030 (Equates to 21.9k Gilt) should weigh. Portugal OT Auction (won't impact Govies. US Sells $39bn of 10yr reopening.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Escriva, Knot, Villeroy, Cipollone, Fed Barkin.
