USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Hits Pause
- RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
- RES 3: 143.01 High Jul 10
- RES 2: 141.68 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 139.40/140.18 High Jul 17 / 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 138.55 @ 15:50 BST Jul 18
- SUP 1: 137.25 Low Jul 14
- SUP 2: 136.57 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 136.31 Low May 17
- SUP 4: 135.53 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - Jun 30 bull leg
The pullback in USDJPY paused to begin the week, warding price action away from entering a technically oversold condition. Despite the pause, the bear cycle that started Jun 30 is still underway. The recent sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price is back inside the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. A continuation lower would open 136.57, the lower band of a moving average envelope. Initial firm resistance is at 140.18, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.
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EURGBP TECHS: Bear Trend Extension
- RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
- RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
- RES 2: 0.8685 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8617/8651 20-day EMA / High May 31
- PRICE: 0.8525 @ 18:54 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022 and Jun 16
- SUP 2: 0.8497 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 0.8468 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down and Friday’s break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8617, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a downtrend. The break of 0.8541 on Friday, Jun 9 and 12 lows, opens 0.8497, a support based on a moving average envelope study and 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.3000 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
- RES 2: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
- RES 1: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
- PRICE: 1.2831 @ 18:44 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 1.2680/30 High May 10 / Low Jun 15
- SUP 2: 1.2526/2457 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2308 Low May 25 and the bear trigger
GBPUSD traded sharply higher last week. The rally confirmed a clear break of the 1.2680 former resistance, the May 10 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens bullish conditions - 1.2680 was a key medium-term hurdle for bulls and opens 1.2849, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition reflecting current conditions. Initial support is at last Thursday’s 1.2630 low.
EURUSD TECHS: Bull Rally Intact
- RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
- RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
- RES 1: 1.0986 61.8% retracement of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg
- PRICE: 1.0936 @ 18:38 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 1.0864/1.0804 High Jun 14 / Low Jun 15
- SUP 2: 1.0777 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
- SUP 4: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
EURUSD rallied sharply higher last week, extending the bull cycle that started at 1.0635 on May 31. A number of important retracement points have been cleared, reinforcing bullish conditions and this signals scope for an extension towards 1.0986, 76.4% of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg. A break of this level would open 1.1054, the May 8 high. Initial firm support is last Thursday’s low of 1.0804.
