FRANCE: PS Ldr.- Need Change Of Political Direction Only PM From Left Can Bring

Dec-06 11:10

Speaking ahead of his meeting with President Emmanuel Macron, First Secretary of the centre-left Socialist Party Olivier Faure says to reports that the PS is "ready to contribute to breaking the political gridlock, but we need a change of political direction". Says "Our priorities include changing the pensions system [Macron's flagship policy]." Faure: "Only a PM from the left could bring the political change we want...Macron should also reach out to the Communists and Greens on forming a gov't....Our aim in talks with Macron is not to accept a gov't that doesn't include policy priorities of the left."

  • Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau from the conservative Les Republicains slaps down Faure, posting on X that the right "will not be able to make any concessions with the left". Says "In the interest of the country, the right can agree to make compromises, certainly not concessions."
  • Faure's suggestion of Macron's centrist Ensemble working with the environmentalist Social and Ecologist (E&S) Group and the left-wing nationalist Democratic and Republican Left (GDR) would represent a major leftward swing in any new gov't. It would almost certainly see LR refuse to participate. It would also be just short of a majority, with 284 seats, four under the 288 threshold. However, it is likely that deputies from the catch-all LIOT group or the unaffiliated non inscrits could push such an administration over the line. 

Chart 1. National Assembly (Prospective GDR-E&S-PS-Ensemble Coalition), Seats

Source: Le Monde, MNI

Historical bullets

EU-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/6-Month EU-Bills

Nov-06 11:06
Type3-month EU-bill6-month EU-bill
MaturityFeb 2, 2025May 9, 2025
AmountE1.418blnE1.8bln
TargetE1.5blnE2.0bln
PreviousE1.276blnE1.745bln
Avg yield2.997%2.811%
Previous3.094%2.979%
Bid-to-cover2.14x2.04x
Previous1.44x1.57x
Previous dateOct 16, 2024Oct 16, 2024

US: SOFR FIX - 06/11/24

Nov-06 11:03

SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME

  • 1M 4.63256 0.00248
  • 3M 4.52226 -0.0004
  • 6M 4.39641 0.01611
  • 12M 4.19947 0.04832

US TSY FUTURES: Cover Dominated Ahead Of Election

Nov-06 11:03

OI data points to cover dominating during yesterday's twist flattening of the curve, as participants generally lightened up on exposure ahead of the election.

  • Short cover in TY presented the only notable move in DV01 equivalent terms.
  • Modest net short setting in FV futures the only contract to buck the broader trend.

 

05-Nov-24

04-Nov-24

Daily OI Change

OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($)

TU

4,397,535

4,440,827

-43,292

-1,570,743

FV

6,248,163

6,236,241

+11,922

+496,677

TY

4,548,256

4,589,153

-40,897

-2,656,074

UXY

2,180,999

2,186,858

-5,859

-508,064

US

1,832,667

1,834,711

-2,044

-258,632

WN

1,743,340

1,747,135

-3,795

-748,662

 

 

Total

-83,965

-5,245,499