LATAM FX: Price Signal Summary – USDMXN Remains Above Support
Feb-26 14:12
- USDMXN is unchanged and the pair continues to trade below the Feb 3 high. Key support has been defined at 20.1343, the Jan 24 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a potential reversal and open 19.7618, the Nov 7 ‘24 low. For now, the recent move down appears corrective. The trend structure is bullish and the recent move above 20.9382, the Jan 17 high, marked a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 21.4007 and 21.5807, the 3.00 and 3.236 projections of the Sep 18 - Oct 1 - 4 ‘24 price swing. Initial resistance is at 20.7132, the Feb 5 high.
- A bear cycle in USDBRL remains in play and this signals scope for a continued retracement. The 50-day EMA has recently been breached and was followed by a break of 5.8675, the Dec 12 low. Sights are on 5.6340, the Nov 7 low, and the 5.6000 handle. On the upside, a confirmed reversal higher would refocus attention on 6.3165, the Dec 18 high and the bull trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 5.8594, the 50-day EMA.
- USDCLP remains in a bear-mode condition. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA. The subsequent bear extension highlights potential for a deeper retracement. Note too that price has also traded through 966.86, the Dec 6 low, and the 960.00 handle. This opens 921.59, the 76.4% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3. Firm resistance is seen at 970.54 the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA, an initial resistance, is at 958.59.
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CANADA: MNI BoC Preview, Jan'25: Easing Amidst Extreme Uncertainty
Jan-27 14:05
We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI BoC Preview ahead of Wednesday's decision.
Please find the full report here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Jan2025_f128d669a0.pdf
US: Trump To Deliver Keynote Address To House GOP Retreat Today
Jan-27 14:01
President Donald Trump will deliver the keynote address to the House Republican policy retreat in Florida today. Vice President JD Vance, a key conduit between the Senate and White House, will attend the retreat tomorrow.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has a long list of priorities for the retreat, including crystalising a “blueprint” for a reconciliation bill to cover the bulk of Trump's agenda; finalising details of a government funding and debt limit package; and balancing competing demands from his conference for deficit reduction, spending cuts, and tax breaks.
- By week's end, Johnson likely intends to have a robust framework in place for a single reconciliation bill that can resolve a standoff with Senate Republican leaders, who prefer a multi-bill reconciliation process.
- Johnson has indicated he intends to pass a budget resolution by February 24. If this timeline is to hold, Johnson will likely have to release a budget plan within the next two weeks or so.
- Reminder: The Senate and House need to approve the same budget resolution to initiate the reconciliation process. That means broad agreement across a range of issues, including any cuts to entitlement programmes.
- On Tuesday, the House Policy Committee and House Budget Committee will meet to hold independent reconciliation discussions. They will provide reports to the retreat on Wednesday morning.
- Note: Johnson has invited Trump to address a joint session of Congress on March 4. This was erroneously flagged as March 14 in today's MNI US Daily Brief.
EUROZONE DATA: Belgium Business Confidence Still Subdued
Jan-27 14:00
The Belgium Business Confidence index, historically a bellwether for broader European sentiment, increased by less than expected in January, rising 0.2 points to -13.6 (cons -13.3 and -13.8 prior). It remains below the 2024 average of -12.5.
- The sector breakdown was mixed, with industry and services improving against sizeable drags from construction and trade.
