OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Structure In Gold Remains Bullish
Nov-20 11:57
- On the commodity front, the bearish phase in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The recovery since Oct 28 suggests that correction is over. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3943.0. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The first short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.
- WTI futures are trading in a range. A sell-off on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.
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US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Oct-21 11:56
Rather modest SOFR/Treasury option volumes to report early Tuesday, as the US Gov enters shutdown day 20. Underlying futures mildly higher (TYZ5 113-21 +2) while US$ index firmer. Projected rate cut pricing largely steady vs. late Monday levels (*): Oct'25 at steady at -24.7bp, Dec'25 at -49.5bp (-50bp), Jan'26 steady at -63.7bp, Mar'26 at -77.2bp (-77bp).
- SOFR Options:
- 13,000 SFRX5 96.75/96.87 call spds, cab
- -3,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 1.25
- Treasury Options:
- 3,000 TYF6 116/117.5 call spds vs. 2,000 TYF6 114.5 calls ref 113-16.5
- -1,500 TYZ5 113.5 calls, 43 vs. 113-16.5/0.52%
- 1,800 TYF 111.5/115.5 strangles ref 113-16.5
- +4,300 TYZ5 115.5 calls, 14 vs. 113-29/0.15%
- +2,000 TYX5 114/114.25/114.5 call flys, 2 vs. 113-24/0.08%
- 2,000 TYX5 113.25/113.75 1x2 call spds, 6 ref 113-20.5
EURIBOR OPTIONS: H6 Call Condor Buyer
Oct-21 11:55
ERH6 98.00/98.0625/98.125/98.1875 call condor, paper pays 0.5 in 2.25k
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Hold On To The Bulk Of Their Gains
Oct-21 11:22
- In the FI space, Bund futures continue to trade below last week’s high, however, a bull cycle remains intact. The impulsive nature of the latest rally and a fresh cycle high on Friday, paves the way for a test of the next key resistance 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.20, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact following the latest strong impulsive rally. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The break strengthened a bull cycle and sights are on 93.30 next, a 1.236 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the trend is overbought and a retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch lies at 91.51, the 20-day EMA.
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