OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Is Holding On To Its Recent Gains
Apr-10 10:52
- In FX, EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. This week’s rally marks an extension of the corrective cycle. Price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs signalling scope for an extension towards 1.1746, a 50.0% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg. Note that trend signals continue to highlight a dominant downtrend and this suggests gains are corrective. Firm support to watch lies at 1.1505, the Apr 6 low. A break of it would signal a bear reversal. Initial support is at 1.1589, the 20-day EMA.
- This week’s rally in GBPUSD strengthens a short-term bullish theme and a continuation higher would open 1.3514, a 50.0% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 31 bear leg. Note that trend signals remain bearish - moving average studies are in bear-mode position highlighting a broader dominant downtrend. This suggests that - for now - gains are corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 1.3159, the Mar 31 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
- The primary trend set-up in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair continues to trade above support. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position that highlights a dominant medium-term uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 160.79 next, a 1.500 projection of the Jan 27 - Feb - 12 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at 157.87, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.
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BONDS: Basing As Bid In Crude Fades
Mar-11 10:50
Core global FI markets find a base as WTI & Brent trade back from session highs, with the correlation between the two remaining elevated given focus on the situation in the Middle East and related energy vol.
- Bunds and gilts still bear flatten on the day, while Tsys bull flatten.
- Move lower in crude comes as various countries flag support for IEA-led action.
- Most recently, local reports have noted that Germany is set to release stockpiles from its strategic reserve.
- Austria has signalled support and readiness to act in accordance with any IEA-led stockpile releases.
- Japan has signalled that it will release stockpiles from its strategic reserve, irrespective of the IEA decision, along with introducing curbs for gasoline prices.
- A reminder that RTRS sources reported that the IEA is set to announce its recommendation on the joint strategic oil reserve release at 13:00 London. Several source reports have pointed to the IEA recommending a record release of 300-400mln barrels.
SWEDEN: 10-year Feb-37 SGB: Final Terms
Mar-11 10:46
- Final terms: SGB+2bps (Revised Guidance was SGB+3 (+/-1) WPIR, guidance was SGB + 4bps area, IPT was SGB+5bps)
- Size: SEK20bln WNG
- Books above SEK67.5b (excluding JLM interest): Leads
- Maturity: 9 February 2037
- Coupon: Annual, 30/360
- Settlement: March 18, 2026 (T+5)
- ISIN: SE0028000281
- Bookrunners: Danske, Handelsbanken, Nordea, SEB (B&D), Swedbank
Details as per Bloomberg
PORTUGAL AUCTION RESULTS: OT Results
Mar-11 10:36
| 2.875% Oct-33 OT | 3.00% Jun-35 OT | |
| ISIN | PTOTEQOE0023 | PTOTEAOE0005 |
| Amount | E679mln | E731mln |
| Previous | E3.5bln | E900mln |
| Avg yield | 3.009% | 3.175% |
| Previous | 2.961% | 3.058% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.92x | 1.89x |
| Previous | 1.82x | |
| Avg Price | 99.09 | 98.61 |
| Pre-auction mid | 98.981 | 98.435 |
| Prev avg price | 99.39 | 99.52 |
| Prev mid-price | 99.380 | |
| Previous date | 23-Sep-25 | 28-Jan-26 |
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