MNI NBP Review - April 2026: Silver Linings

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Executive Summary

• The NBP left interest rates unchanged as it monitors the impact of the Iran war.
• The reasoning behind near-term on-hold guidance appeared asymmetric.
• The Governor sought to soothe the nerves; saw inflation staying within tolerance band.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept interest rates flat, with the reference rate at 3.75%, matching virtually unanimous consensus as the spectre of second-round effects from the Iran war loom large. The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) concluded that it would be prudent to stay put and monitor the pass-through from energy prices to the wider economy, with Governor Adam Glapiński guiding that near-term policy adjustments are highly unlikely. The tone of his press conference, however, was neutral to modestly dovish overall, as he expressed optimism about the current ceasefire and signalled that the bar to rate hikes is high.