OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Phase in S&P E-Minis Extends

Ireland has announced it will be looking to sell E1.00-1.25bln of the 3.10% Jun-36 IGB (ISIN: IE000O6GBYC9) at its auction this Thursday, March 12.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has delivered a speech to the annual conference of EU ambassadors in Brussels. VdL used the speech to outline her views on the geoeconomic and security outlook for the EU. Select comments below:

• On the 'rules-based international order': "...Europe can no longer be a custodian for the old-world order, a world that has gone and will not return. We'll always defend and uphold the rules-based system we helped build with our allies, but we can no longer rely on it as the only way to defend our interests or assume its rules will shelter us from the complex threats that we face."
• On foreign policy, "We urgently need to reflect on whether our doctrine, decision making – all designed in a postwar world of stability and multilateralism – have kept pace with the speed of change around us."
• Says EU must ask "Whether the system we built [...] is more help or a hindrance to our credibility as a geopolitical actor. I know this is a stark message and a difficult conversation to have.[...] The point is that, if we believe – as I do – that we need a more realistic and interest-driven foreign policy"
• On EU independence/strategic autonomy: "We need to be prepared to project our power more assertively. For instance, to counter aggression and foreign interference with all of our tools..."

VdL: "Security must become the organising principle of our action. This must be the default mindset [...]. Some may say we are stepping out of our comfort zone. Others argue that we should focus only on what is happening on our own borders. But the threats we face come from all directions and all domains...". 

• The language von der Leyen used is notable for several reasons. Within the EU institutions, there have been questions asked about the role of the Commission President regarding foreign policy. Reports have suggested something of a power struggle between VdL and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, while others note member states viewing VdL's comments as overreach into areas of national rather than EU competence on foreign policy.
• While von der Leyen's speech will garner headlines about her comments on the 'old world order', and whether she is looking to signal a turn away from rules-based diplomacy towards a more aggressive stance from Brussels, crucially it should be noted that on many areas other than trade and sanctions policy, powers in relation to security and foreign policy remain with member states rather than the EU.
• The difficulties the EU has had in imposing further sanctions on Russia or providing loans to Ukraine due to objections from Hungary demonstrate that, without legal treaty changes that end unanimity rules on areas of foreign policy formation in Brussels, there is only so much that the Commission can do in the security sphere.