OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Flag In WTI

Nov-07 11:59

On the commodity front, a corrective bear cycle in Gold remains intact for now. The move down since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support around the 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3875.8 - a key pivot support. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
The latest pullback in WTI futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that a bullish corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.91, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is $55.96, the Oct 20 low.

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Oct-08 11:54

SOFR Options:
- 2,500 2QM6 97.62 calls, 4.0 vs. 96.74/0.12%
- 4,000 0QM6 96.00/96.50 put spds WITH 2QM6 95.87/96.37 put spds, 16.5 total
- +2,000 SFRZ5 96.00 puts, 0.5 ref 96.325
- 3,000 0QH6 97.06/97.18 call spds vs 3QH6 96.75/97.00 call spds on 2x1 basis
- +4,500 SFRZ6 96.12/96.50/96.75 broken put flys, 2.0 ref 96.94
Treasury Options:
- -7,000 wk2 TY 112 puts, cab-7 ref 112-25.5 (exp 10/10)
- 4,000 wk2 TY 113.25 calls, 2 ref 112-24 (exp 10/10)
- -5,000 TYZ5 111/112 put spds, 16 ref 112-24
- +2,000 USX5 114 puts, 7 ref 116-31

Oct-08 11:49

In the FI space, Bund futures have rallied sharply higher today and in the process cleared initial resistance at 128.84, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg. The breach signals scope for a stronger recovery and potentially exposes key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. The next resistance is 129.07, the 76.4% retracement. The Oct 7 low of 128.25, has been defined as a key short-term support.
Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday, extending the latest pullback but price has recovered.. Attention is on the near-term support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for an extension towards 89.94, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key medium-term support lies at 89.36, the Sep 3 low. First resistance to watch is 91.08, high Oct 1. A break would be a bullish short-term development.

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