OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Futures Intact

• Treasuries holding firmer on light holiday volumes (TYH6 under 115k) - futures near top end of narrow range since the Asia cross-over to London trade - when yields dipped in reaction to additional tariffs on beef by China overnight: the US will have to pay 55% additional tariffs on beef exports to China, above its specified quota (164k tons a year in 2026).
• TYH6 trading 112-24 (+3.5) overnight high vs. 112-18 low, 10Y yld at 4.1083% (-.0136), curves mildly flatter with the Bonds outperforming: 2s10s -.966 at 66.183, 5s30s -.580 at 112.170.
• Trend theme remains bearish and a break of 111-29 would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This would open 111-19, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112-31, the Dec 18 high, where a break would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.
• Markets close early today for New Years eve (1300ET; 1600ET Globex), re-open/electronic trade Thursday evening for Friday's order of business. Today's shortened session sees Weekly Jobless Claims (0830ET). Followed by staggered US Treasury supply: 4W & 8W bills at 1000ET, 17W bills at 1130ET.

Finnish police have confirmed that, as part of a joint operation with Estonia, a vessel has been seized by Finnish authorities after it was suspected of damaging telecoms provider Elisa's cable running under the Gulf of Finland between Helsinki and Tallinn. The Finnish police say that the damage to the cable occurred within the waters of Estonia's exclusive economic zone, and that the seized vessel's anchor chain was found to have been lowered into the sea. It is now known at present which country the vessel is associated with. 

• Posting on X, Finland's President Alexander Stubb said, "We are monitoring the situation in close cooperation with the government. Finland is prepared for security challenges of various kinds, and we respond to them as necessary."
• Helsingin Sanomat: "The disruption has no impact on Elisa's services in Finland or Estonia "due to the network's reliable structure," Elisa said in a statement. However, the disruption may have had an impact on customers who have purchased direct transmission connections from cable."
• Earlier in 2025, crew from a Cook Island-flagged vessel believed to be part of Russia's 'shadow fleet' were charged over an incident in Dec 2024, when five cables running between Finland and Estonia were damaged by an anchor dragged for 90km.
• Russia hawks in Europe have warned that such incidents are likely to continue as part of 'hybrid attacks' by Moscow intended to unnerve, distract, and disrupt European nations amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

Portugal HICP accelerated to 2.4% Y/Y in December according to the Statistics Portugal flash release (2.1% November).

• The national-level CPI (non-HICP) meanwhile was almost stable this time, at 2.19% (2.21% November). Discrepancies in the annual rates between CPI and HICP can often be related to owners equivalent rents or package holidays, but the lack of details in today's Portugal release makes this rather tricky. Looking CPI, for which the statistics agency publishes some, limited, details:
• Core (excl. unproc. food and energy) saw some moderate acceleration Y/Y, to 2.06% from 1.96% in November.
• "The annual rate of change of the index for energy products decreased to -2.4% (-0.8% in November)"
• Food was mixed this time, with unprocessed food further accelerating (6.02% Dec vs 5.95% Nov) while processed food was lower than before (0.93% vs 1.15% prior).
• For reference, Portugal contributes 2.6% to the overall Eurozone HICP 2025 basket.
• The print comes after Spain HICP came in in line with expectations, at 3.0% Y/Y, down from 3.2% while Belgium HICP decelerated by 0.4pp to 2.2% (no consensus).
• France will be the next country to follow with national-level flash December HICP data, scheduled for next Tuesday, January 6.